410
FXUS65 KABQ 092053
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
253 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Widespread showers and storms today will increase the risk of flash
flooding over recent burn scars and in northeastern New Mexico. A
few storms may intensify and become severe in the northeast this
evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered storms will generally
be confined to the high terrain of western and northern New Mexico
this weekend, but storm chances trend up again Monday. High temps
climb above average this weekend and remain there through the
duration of the week. Typical scattered monsoon showers and storms
are likely each afternoon and evening next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

New Mexico is sandwiched between a ridge over the Permian Basin and
a weak Low over Baja California. With ample moisture (PWATs of 100-
160% of normal) in place, widespread showers and storms are expected
again today. The first two areas to convect have been the western
mountains and the south-central mountains/Upper Tularosa Valley.
Weak deformation on the northeast side of the Baja Low is
responsible for helping get storms off the ground over the western
high terrain whereas a sfc convergence zone in combination with the
destabilization effect of mid-level dry air is responsible for the
latter. However, the main focus of storms today will be from the
Sangre de Cristo mountains eastward to the TX border. The northeast
highlands and northeast plains have been plagued by low clouds thus
far today, but when they do finally erode in the next couple of
hours, the strong instability will support rapid storm development.
Low-level flow is oriented nearly perpendicular to the mean storm
motion so training storms will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall rates for several hours. The HREF max 3-hour QPF shows a
large area with 1.5"+ in Colfax and Union counties, although would
not be surprised if a few locales received 3"+. Soil moisture is
already relatively high in this region from rounds of showers and
storms over the past several days so absorption will struggle to
keep up with heavier rainfall rates. Sfc CAPE in excess of 1,000
J/kg along with effective shear values of 20-30KT will help storms
intensify as they move east off the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. The threat of damaging winds is greater than that
of large hail, particularly as storms cluster together, but wouldn`t
rule out the threat of hail altogether. While moisture is not as
anomalously high in the western mountains, the ample lift and storm
motion from southwest to northeast will be favorable for training
storms out there too. Storms and the associated flash flood threat
will persist well into the overnight hours and even as late as the
early morning across north-central and northeastern NM.

The High currently over the Permian Basin will nudge westward
tomorrow, bringing some dry air into the central portion of the
state. It will be a relative down day for convection, with most
storms confined to the high terrain of far western and far northern
NM. Increasing subsidence in the east-central and southeast plains
will bring high temps up a few degrees closer to the century mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Seasonably dry air underneath the Monsoon ridge will help to keep
the southeastern half of the state dry again Sunday whilst the
western and northern borders of the state remain active thanks to a
tilting of the southerly moisture plume. Global models continue to
pick up on a southerly wave that will get embedded within the
southerly moisture plume, resulting in an uptick in convection
Monday afternoon, particularly for central and western portions of
the state. Recycled moisture on Tuesday will keep shower and storm
chances around for the western half of the state. Uncertainty
begins to creep into the forecast mid-week as a trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. Some models suggest an elongated sub-tropical
high will shift in from the west. This in combination with the
aformentioned trough would likely push some dry air into western NM,
disrupting the monsoonal moisture plume. However, GEFS ensemble mean
PWATs suggest that near average moisture will remain in place
through the weekend, fueling typical mid-August afternoon showers
and storms. The other concern next week will be the heat. Upper 90s
and low 100s will be common in the east-central and southeast plains
while temps will range from the low to upper 90s along the Rio
Grande Valley. Temps won`t be breaking records but will still be
enough to elevated the risk of heat-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

MVFR to IFR cigs are currently in place east of the central
mountain chain and satellite trends suggest they will continue for
at least 1-3 more hours before eventually breaking up mid-
afternoon. As a result, convective initiation will be delayed
this afternoon for areas along and east of the central mountain
chain. Early afternoon storms will develop over mountain peaks and
generally move northeastward at 10-20 mph today. Storm chances
are greatest near the CO border thanks to anomalously high
moisture content. Storm chances will increase as one moves north
along the Rio Grande Valley, but isolated storms and associated
gusty winds could impact sites as far south as KONM.

Breezy east winds are still in place this morning at many
terminals, but winds will begin to weaken as the pressure gradient
associated with the backdoor cold front that went through last
night gets washed out. Gusty east winds over 35KT at KABQ cannot
be ruled out this evening, but is much less likely than yesterday
considering convection is not expected to be as vigorous over the
east slopes of the Sandia/Manzano mountains.

MVFR to IFR cigs are possible again tonight and tomorrow morning
in eastern NM, but should be shorter lived since breezy southerly
winds in the morning should help to scour out low-level moisture.
Furthermore, MVFR conditions along with very strong winds and
hail may accompany stronger storms this evening in eastern NM at
sites such as KRTN, KCAO, and KTCC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are next expected the next 7 days.
Widespread storms today will decrease in coverage tomorrow as they
become confined to the high terrain of western and northern NM. Low
clouds during the morning hours will once again create poor
ventilation in eastern NM, but clouds should clear earlier than
today. Temperatures rise above average again this weekend and remain
there throughout next week, creating heat risk concerns along the
Rio Grande Valley and in the eastern plains. Monday looks like
another active Monsoon day with convective activity gradually
trending down throughout the week. Drier air may infiltrate from the
west late week, decreasing precipitation chances there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  87  65  87 /  50  30  40  20
Dulce...........................  54  82  53  83 /  80  60  40  50
Cuba............................  59  83  58  84 /  60  40  20  50
Gallup..........................  58  88  59  86 /  20  10  10  50
El Morro........................  58  83  58  84 /  30  10  20  60
Grants..........................  60  87  61  87 /  30  10  20  60
Quemado.........................  58  86  59  86 /  20  10  10  60
Magdalena.......................  64  86  64  89 /  10   5   5  30
Datil...........................  57  83  58  85 /  10  10  10  50
Reserve.........................  58  89  58  91 /  10   5   5  50
Glenwood........................  66  94  68  95 /   5   5   5  40
Chama...........................  51  74  51  78 /  80  70  40  70
Los Alamos......................  60  79  62  83 /  70  50  20  50
Pecos...........................  57  81  58  85 /  50  20  10  40
Cerro/Questa....................  52  75  53  79 /  80  60  40  60
Red River.......................  47  66  49  71 /  70  60  40  60
Angel Fire......................  47  71  47  75 /  70  50  20  60
Taos............................  55  79  54  84 /  70  50  20  30
Mora............................  52  79  55  82 /  60  40  30  40
Espanola........................  61  85  63  90 /  50  40  20  20
Santa Fe........................  60  82  63  86 /  40  20  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  60  86  62  89 /  30  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  90  69  92 /  20  10  10  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  92  69  94 /  20   5   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  94  69  96 /  20   0   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  93  70  94 /  20   5  10  10
Belen...........................  66  94  68  96 /  10   0  10  10
Bernalillo......................  66  93  68  96 /  30  10  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  65  93  68  96 /  10   0   5  10
Corrales........................  66  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  20
Los Lunas.......................  65  93  68  96 /  10   0   5  10
Placitas........................  65  90  68  92 /  20  10  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  93  69  94 /  30  10  10  10
Socorro.........................  68  95  69  98 /   5   0   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  85  63  86 /  20  10   5  30
Tijeras.........................  62  87  64  89 /  20  10   5  30
Edgewood........................  58  87  62  90 /  20   5   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  88  59  91 /  30   5   5  10
Clines Corners..................  55  83  59  87 /  30   5   5  10
Mountainair.....................  58  86  61  89 /  10   0   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  60  90 /  10   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  89  65  93 /  20   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  57  81  59  84 /  10  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  56  79  56  83 /  90  40  40  40
Raton...........................  56  84  56  88 /  70  40  30  30
Springer........................  58  87  58  90 /  60  30  20  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  83  57  87 /  50  20  20  30
Clayton.........................  59  86  63  91 /  80  40  30  10
Roy.............................  59  86  62  90 /  60  30  20  20
Conchas.........................  64  94  67  99 /  50  20  20   5
Santa Rosa......................  63  91  64  95 /  20   5  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  64  93  69  99 /  50  10  10   0
Clovis..........................  65  95  68 101 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  65  95  68 101 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  94  67  99 /  10   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  71 100  70 104 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  64  92  63  96 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  59  89  61  93 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ212>215-222-223-
227>232-234.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16