772
FXUS65 KABQ 050737
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Dry and hot conditions will persist over central and western
  New Mexico today through Monday with moderate heat risk likely.
  A few storms will begin impacting this area Tuesday through late
  next week however most areas will just remain dry and very hot
  with increasing risk for heat-related illnesses.

- Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop along the
  central mountain chain today through late next week. Strong
  outflow winds, hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy
  rainfall will elevate the risk for flash flooding, especially on
  recent burn scars.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A moist, backdoor cold front currently moving south from eastern
CO will slide into northeast NM late this morning. Meanwhile, a 40
to 50kt upper level speed max will round the northwest periphery
of a 594dm H5 high building over southern NM. Upslope flow with
the surface front along the Sangre de Cristo Mts this afternoon,
ascent with the stronger upper level winds, and instability with
afternoon heating will allow storms to develop this afternoon
over northeast NM. The latest SPC convective outlook has a
`Marginal Risk` for severe storms over the eastern row of NM
counties. The NBM auto-populated grids have only 20 to 30% PoPs
in this same area. However, recent hi-res ensemble model guidance
shows an elongated area of storms developing along the I-25
corridor of northeast NM by 3pm then moving south and east across
much of northeast and east-central NM thru the evening. This
convection then forces strong outflow south and west toward the
central mt chain this evening with light to moderate gap winds
developing in the RGV. This moisture sets the stage for a larger
crop of showers and storms Sunday along and east of the central mt
chain. The 594dm H5 high is projected to slide north into central
NM which allows better mid level moisture to move north along
with increasing southeasterly low level return flow. Higher PoPs
are shown for Sunday with PWATs and slow storm motions supportive
of locally heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood Watch is looking more
likely for the Ruidoso area Sunday. The 00Z HREF mean, 00Z RRFS,
and 01Z NBM 6-hour QPF between noon and 6pm Sunday shows cells
capable of producing 0.50-1.0" around Lincoln County.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The overall setup for Monday looks similar to Sunday with the focus
for locally heavy rainfall along and east of the central mt chain.
Storm motions will remain slow and erratic with a tendency toward
the south and east. By Tuesday, the H5 high is shown building to
near 597dm over western NM. Another crop of storms is likely to
build along the central mt chain and move erratically southward.
Slow storm motion will continue the threat for heavy rainfall. Max
temps Monday and Tuesday will warm above normal across central and
western NM. Readings may approach Heat Advisory levels around the
ABQ metro area by Tuesday.

The rest of next week may remain active but confidence decreases
given uncertainty with how the H5 high evolves over the southwest
CONUS. Confidence is higher for very hot temps to persist over at
least central and western NM where Heat Advisories may become more
common Wednesday and Thursday. Recent guidance continues to trend a
tad farther east with a 600dm H5 high center near Gallup, which may
shut down storm chances both days as far east as the central mt
chain. Eastern NM may still see storms pop up each afternoon with
locally heavy rainfall possible. An upper level trough approaching
from the northern Rockies may force the ridge southward Thursday
night and Friday but model agreement remains poor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Clear skies early this morning may give way to an area of MVFR low
cigs over far eastern NM. The NBM auto-populated cloud base grids
show no low clouds working into eastern NM with a <5% probability
for cigs below 5kft. However, based on latest satellite imagery
trends over west TX and 00Z HREF guidance there is much higher
potential from near KTCC to KCVS from 3am to 9am. SHRA/TS will
then develop to the lee of the central mt chain after 2pm and
grow downstream into a few stronger cells closer to the TX/NM
border thru 6pm. A few of these storms may produce downburst wind
gusts near 50KT. Outflow from this convection across eastern NM
may kick a gap wind into the RGV after 8pm with gusts near 30KT
possible around KABQ.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Central and western NM will remain very dry and hot through Sunday
but winds will be lighter than observed on Friday. Moisture will
return to eastern NM today where showers and storms are possible
east of the central mountain chain. This activity will move south
and east with strong winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall.
Outflow from these storms will move west to the central mountain
chain for Sunday and bring higher chances for heavy rainfall to
more areas of eastern NM, including burn scars. A Flash Flood
Watch may be needed for the Ruidoso area if recent model trends
continue. The rest of next week will feature a strong area of high
pressure taking shape over AZ and western NM. Moisture beneath
the high may still allow for daily rounds of showers and storms
along and east of the central mt chain, while central and western
NM remain very hot and mostly dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  58  95  62 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  89  45  91  49 /   0   0  20  20
Cuba............................  88  56  90  57 /   0   0  20  30
Gallup..........................  89  50  92  52 /   0   5  20  20
El Morro........................  87  55  89  57 /   5  10  30  40
Grants..........................  90  54  92  55 /   0   5  20  30
Quemado.........................  87  57  90  59 /  10  10  20  50
Magdalena.......................  89  62  90  64 /   0   0  20  30
Datil...........................  87  57  88  59 /   5   5  20  40
Reserve.........................  94  55  95  56 /  20  10  20  30
Glenwood........................  97  59 100  60 /  10  10  20  30
Chama...........................  84  47  84  49 /   0   0  20  20
Los Alamos......................  86  61  85  61 /   5   5  50  20
Pecos...........................  86  57  86  57 /  20  10  70  40
Cerro/Questa....................  85  54  86  54 /  10  10  40  20
Red River.......................  76  45  77  46 /  20  10  50  30
Angel Fire......................  79  40  79  42 /  20  10  60  20
Taos............................  88  51  88  53 /   5  10  40  20
Mora............................  83  50  82  50 /  30  10  70  30
Espanola........................  94  59  94  60 /   0   0  30  20
Santa Fe........................  88  61  88  61 /  10  10  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  91  60  92  60 /   5  10  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  94  68  96  68 /   0   0  40  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  96  66  97  67 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  98  65 100  66 /   0   0  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  96  67  97  67 /   0   0  20  30
Belen...........................  97  63  99  65 /   0   0  20  30
Bernalillo......................  97  65  98  65 /   0   0  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  97  62  98  64 /   0   0  20  30
Corrales........................  97  65  99  67 /   0   0  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  97  63  98  65 /   0   0  20  30
Placitas........................  92  65  94  65 /   0   0  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  96  65  97  67 /   0   0  20  30
Socorro.........................  99  68 100  70 /   0   0  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  89  59  89  59 /   0   5  40  30
Tijeras.........................  90  60  91  61 /   0   5  40  30
Edgewood........................  89  55  90  55 /   0  10  40  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  91  53  91  53 /   0  10  50  30
Clines Corners..................  84  57  84  56 /  20  10  50  30
Mountainair.....................  89  57  90  57 /   0  10  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  89  57  90  57 /   5  10  50  30
Carrizozo.......................  94  65  91  64 /   5  10  50  20
Ruidoso.........................  87  58  83  57 /  20  20  60  20
Capulin.........................  82  54  81  52 /  40  20  60  40
Raton...........................  87  54  87  53 /  30  20  50  30
Springer........................  89  55  87  54 /  30  20  50  30
Las Vegas.......................  86  55  84  54 /  30  20  60  30
Clayton.........................  90  61  87  59 /  20  30  30  40
Roy.............................  87  60  85  57 /  30  30  40  40
Conchas.........................  94  65  92  62 /  20  30  40  40
Santa Rosa......................  92  64  90  62 /  20  20  40  40
Tucumcari.......................  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  20  40
Clovis..........................  94  67  90  65 /  20  30  20  40
Portales........................  95  68  92  66 /  20  20  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  97  67  93  65 /  20  20  30  30
Roswell......................... 100  72  95  70 /  20  10  20  20
Picacho.........................  95  64  90  63 /  20  10  40  20
Elk.............................  93  61  89  59 /  20  10  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42