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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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711 FXUS65 KABQ 102007 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A lower coverage of monsoon shower and storm activity continues Sunday with the monsoon high centered over south central New Mexico. The monsoon high moves east over the south central U.S. Monday and Tuesday with typical monsoon pattern expected these days. Shower and storm coverage will favor northern and central areas. A disturbance moving across northern Mexico and southern NM could enhance shower and storm coverage across southern areas Wednesday. Lower confidence in shower and storm coverage late next week due to stark model differences in the overall pattern. Temperatures will be near normal across western areas and slightly above normal across central and eastern areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Destabilization has occurred first this afternoon over the high terrain of western NM. However, dry air can be seen creeping northward on water vapor imagery, limiting the potential of these scattered storms. Northern NM continues to be cloudy and cool, but recent satellite trends suggest clearing is beginning to occur and that destabilization is not far away. Divergence aloft associated with shortwave is quickly progressing eastward and will likely be east of the state by the peak afternoon heating. The convergence aloft in the wake of the shortwave will help to dampen convective activity across north-central NM and northeastern NM despite the anomalously moist atmosphere. Models have backed off the potential for heavy rainfall in northeastern NM as a result, but it won`t take much to produce flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar or in Harding/eastern San Miguel County after yesterday`s heavy rainfall. Storms in the ABQ metro area are highly uncertain again today. An unfavorable flow direction combined with a strong subsidence inversion between 400mb and 500 mb suggest convection is unlikely, but a PWAT around 1.1" does indicate the potential for heavy rainfall rates in the presence of a forcing mechanism. Given the southwest flow, it would likely need to be an outflow boundary from storms over the west-central mountains like yesterday. Recent model trends suggest Sunday may be more active than previously advertised. The centroid of the H5 ridge will shift westward over south-central NM, pushing dry air north and westward. However PWATs up to 150% are still likely over the Four Corners, providing plenty of fuel for at least scattered convection there. Hi- res models are somewhat surprisingly showing isolated to scattered convection as far south as the Sacramento mtns near the centroid of the ridge. If storms do develop anywhere south of I-40, they will move very slowly and be short-lived. Temperatures trend up a few to several degrees tomorrow, especially in northeastern locales where today is seasonably cool. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A traditional monsoon plume is favored to return across northern and western NM based on ensemble cluster and deterministic output on Monday as the monsoon high shifts east to the south central U.S. Showers and storms will develop across the northern and western mountain ranges midday moving northeast into surrounding lower elevations come the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will be around to slightly above average for mid August (0.8 to 1.1 inches). The one exception looks to be across southeast NM due to some drier mid level air across that part of the state. A backdoor front across Union County and the higher moisture behind it in far northeast NM Monday afternoon could help enhance showers and storms there come Monday evening. Most activity tapers off come midnight. On Tuesday, shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow across the intermountain West ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific NW could result in an enhancement of shower and storm coverage along and west of the central mountain chain. PWATs and storm motion will be similar to Monday with the eastern plains looking to be the driest part of the state. Uncertainty begins to noticeably increase Wednesday. Upper level flow could become more southwest oriented across northern areas and slow and erratic across southern areas if the GFS and its ensembles pan out. In the case of the ECMWF and its ensembles, it could be west to northwest oriented areawide at the base of a shortwave with a building upper high over southern CA. The GFS has precip focused across southern areas due to a tropical wave moving across northern Mexico and southern NM. The ECMWF has precip focused across north central and northeast NM due to a shortwave moving across the Rockies. The ensemble clusters seem to slightly favor the GFS and the NBM QPF depicts this as well with some higher QPF across Ruidoso`s burn scars. Beyond Wednesday, forecast confidence in storm coverage is very low. The GFS keeps the traditional monsoon flow with the monsoon high over the south central U.S. and PWATs around an inch. Meanwhile, the ECMWF develops the high over southern CA moving it over the desert southwest and eventually NM Thursday into Friday. Northwest flow on the ECMWF solution drops PWATs to half an inch across western and central NM and around 0.7 to 0.9 inches across eastern NM due to a backdoor front. As a result, storm coverage is focused across western and central NM on the GFS or low to nil areawide on the ECMWF. Ensembles are split down the middle as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 MVFR cigs persist across the northern third of the state, but low clouds will continue to clear through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs. Afternoon destabilization will increase the coverage of showers and storms in this area after 21Z, with isolated convection extending as far south as I-40. There is greater uncertainty with regard to convection in central NM since drier mid-level air and a subsidence layer around 500mb will try to squash anything that develops. Storms are expected to persist past sunset and through as late as 15Z in north-central and northeastern NM. Unlike the previous couple of mornings, MVFR to IFR cigs from 12Z to 18Z tomorrow will be much more isolated thanks to a drying trend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days. Low clouds across northern NM are beginning to clear, but spots of poor ventilation will continue through the afternoon in and around the northern mountains. Showers and a few storms with heavier rainfall rates are likely across north-central and northwest areas this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity in central and northeastern areas. Scattered afternoon/evening and showers and storms will favor western and northern areas tomorrow. The coverage of wetting rainfall will likely expand Monday and particularly Tuesday as a shortwave provides greater forcing for precipitation development. Confidence in precipitation chances mid to late week is low. Some models show a warming and drying trend as a ridge amplifies over the Intermountain West. However, others show a typical monsoon pattern with moist southerly flow. With the latter scenario, temperatures would be closer to mid-August averages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 87 63 87 / 50 30 30 20 Dulce........................... 53 81 50 85 / 50 50 40 40 Cuba............................ 59 83 58 85 / 30 40 30 30 Gallup.......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 40 30 40 El Morro........................ 58 83 57 83 / 30 40 40 50 Grants.......................... 60 86 60 87 / 20 40 30 50 Quemado......................... 60 84 58 84 / 30 50 40 70 Magdalena....................... 64 86 63 87 / 10 30 20 50 Datil........................... 59 84 58 84 / 20 40 30 60 Reserve......................... 60 89 57 89 / 20 40 30 70 Glenwood........................ 67 94 67 95 / 20 30 30 60 Chama........................... 51 74 50 79 / 60 60 30 50 Los Alamos...................... 61 82 61 83 / 40 50 20 50 Pecos........................... 59 83 59 85 / 30 30 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 76 51 81 / 40 60 30 50 Red River....................... 48 68 47 71 / 50 70 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 48 74 46 76 / 40 60 20 60 Taos............................ 55 82 54 85 / 40 40 20 40 Mora............................ 54 81 53 82 / 30 40 20 60 Espanola........................ 61 88 61 91 / 40 30 20 30 Santa Fe........................ 61 84 62 87 / 30 30 20 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 88 61 90 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 69 91 68 94 / 20 30 20 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 69 93 68 95 / 20 20 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 68 95 68 97 / 20 20 10 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 93 69 95 / 20 20 20 10 Belen........................... 68 95 66 97 / 10 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 68 94 67 97 / 20 20 20 20 Bosque Farms.................... 68 95 65 96 / 10 20 10 10 Corrales........................ 68 94 68 97 / 20 20 20 20 Los Lunas....................... 69 95 67 96 / 10 20 10 10 Placitas........................ 67 91 65 92 / 20 20 20 20 Rio Rancho...................... 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 20 10 Socorro......................... 69 96 69 98 / 5 10 10 20 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 85 61 87 / 20 20 10 30 Tijeras......................... 64 88 63 89 / 20 20 10 30 Edgewood........................ 61 88 60 90 / 20 20 10 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 89 58 92 / 20 20 5 30 Clines Corners.................. 59 85 60 87 / 20 20 10 30 Mountainair..................... 63 88 60 89 / 5 10 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 62 88 60 89 / 5 10 10 30 Carrizozo....................... 66 91 67 93 / 10 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 60 84 62 85 / 20 20 5 30 Capulin......................... 57 83 56 80 / 40 50 30 50 Raton........................... 56 87 55 86 / 40 40 20 50 Springer........................ 58 89 57 87 / 30 40 10 50 Las Vegas....................... 57 86 57 87 / 30 30 20 40 Clayton......................... 63 91 64 87 / 40 30 20 20 Roy............................. 61 89 61 88 / 30 40 30 30 Conchas......................... 66 97 66 97 / 30 20 20 20 Santa Rosa...................... 65 95 66 93 / 20 10 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 67 99 67 97 / 20 10 10 10 Clovis.......................... 68 99 69 100 / 5 5 10 5 Portales........................ 69 100 69 100 / 5 0 5 5 Fort Sumner..................... 68 99 68 98 / 5 5 10 5 Roswell......................... 71 103 72 102 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 95 66 96 / 5 5 0 10 Elk............................. 61 91 63 94 / 10 10 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...16