654
FXUS65 KABQ 110539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A lower coverage of monsoon shower and storm activity continues
Sunday with the monsoon high centered over south central New Mexico.
The monsoon high moves east over the south central U.S. Monday and
Tuesday with a typical monsoon pattern expected these days.
Shower and storm coverage will favor northern and western areas. A
disturbance moving across northern Mexico and southern NM could
enhance shower and storm coverage across southern areas Wednesday.
Lower confidence in shower and storm coverage late next week due
to stark model differences in the overall pattern. Temperatures
will be near normal across western areas and slightly above normal
across central and eastern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Destabilization has occurred first this afternoon over the high
terrain of western NM. However, dry air can be seen creeping
northward on water vapor imagery, limiting the potential of these
scattered storms. Northern NM continues to be cloudy and cool, but
recent satellite trends suggest clearing is beginning to occur and
that destabilization is not far away. Divergence aloft associated
with shortwave is quickly progressing eastward and will likely be
east of the state by the peak afternoon heating. The convergence
aloft in the wake of the shortwave will help to dampen convective
activity across north-central NM and northeastern NM despite the
anomalously moist atmosphere. Models have backed off the potential
for heavy rainfall in northeastern NM as a result, but it won`t take
much to produce flash flooding over the HPCC burn scar or in
Harding/eastern San Miguel County after yesterday`s heavy rainfall.
Storms in the ABQ metro area are highly uncertain again today. An
unfavorable flow direction combined with a strong subsidence
inversion between 400mb and 500 mb suggest convection is unlikely,
but a PWAT around 1.1" does indicate the potential for heavy
rainfall rates in the presence of a forcing mechanism. Given the
southwest flow, it would likely need to be an outflow boundary from
storms over the west-central mountains like yesterday.

Recent model trends suggest Sunday may be more active than
previously advertised. The centroid of the H5 ridge will shift
westward over south-central NM, pushing dry air north and westward.
However PWATs up to 150% are still likely over the Four Corners,
providing plenty of fuel for at least scattered convection there. Hi-
res models are somewhat surprisingly showing isolated to scattered
convection as far south as the Sacramento mtns near the centroid of
the ridge. If storms do develop anywhere south of I-40, they will
move very slowly and be short-lived. Temperatures trend up a few to
several degrees tomorrow, especially in northeastern locales where
today is seasonably cool.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

A traditional monsoon plume is favored to return across northern and
western NM based on ensemble cluster and deterministic output on
Monday as the monsoon high shifts east to the south central U.S.
Showers and storms will develop across the northern and western
mountain ranges midday moving northeast into surrounding lower
elevations come the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs will be
around to slightly above average for mid August (0.8 to 1.1 inches).
The one exception looks to be across southeast NM due to some drier
mid level air across that part of the state. A backdoor front across
Union County and the higher moisture behind it in far northeast NM
Monday afternoon could help enhance showers and storms there come
Monday evening. Most activity tapers off come midnight. On Tuesday,
shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow across the intermountain
West ahead of an upper level trough over the Pacific NW could result
in an enhancement of shower and storm coverage along and west of the
central mountain chain. PWATs and storm motion will be similar to
Monday with the eastern plains looking to be the driest part of the
state.

Uncertainty begins to noticeably increase Wednesday. Upper level flow
could become more southwest oriented across northern areas and slow
and erratic across southern areas if the GFS and its ensembles pan
out. In the case of the ECMWF and its ensembles, it could be west to
northwest oriented areawide at the base of a shortwave with a
building upper high over southern CA. The GFS has precip focused
across southern areas due to a tropical wave moving across northern
Mexico and southern NM. The ECMWF has precip focused across north
central and northeast NM due to a shortwave moving across the
Rockies. The ensemble clusters seem to slightly favor the GFS and
the NBM QPF depicts this as well with some higher QPF across
Ruidoso`s burn scars. Beyond Wednesday, forecast confidence in storm
coverage is very low. The GFS keeps the traditional monsoon flow
with the monsoon high over the south central U.S. and PWATs around
an inch. Meanwhile, the ECMWF develops the high over southern CA
moving it over the desert southwest and eventually NM Thursday into
Friday. Northwest flow on the ECMWF solution drops PWATs to half an
inch across western and central NM and around 0.7 to 0.9 inches
across eastern NM due to a backdoor front. As a result, storm
coverage is focused across western and central NM on the GFS or low
to nil areawide on the ECMWF. Ensembles are split down the middle as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

SHRA/TS will persist well into the night across northern NM while
areas along and south of I-40 see clearing skies. The potential
for low cigs across eastern NM is very low tonight given surface
winds are veering out of the southwest. Model guidance indicates
convective initiation will be earlier Sunday over the northern and
western high terrain with scattered SHRA/TS by 1pm. This activity
will move eastward into nearby valleys and highlands thru late
evening. Direct hits will be capable of locally heavy rain, gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and potential MVFR vsbys. The greatest
coverage is likely to favor northern NM once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected the next 7 days.
Low clouds across northern NM are beginning to clear, but spots of
poor ventilation will continue through the afternoon in and around
the northern mountains. Showers and a few storms with heavier
rainfall rates are likely across north-central and northwest areas
this afternoon and evening, with more isolated activity in central
and northeastern areas. Scattered afternoon/evening and showers and
storms will favor western and northern areas tomorrow. The coverage
of wetting rainfall will likely expand Monday and particularly
Tuesday as a shortwave provides greater forcing for precipitation
development. Confidence in precipitation chances mid to late week is
low. Some models show a warming and drying trend as a ridge
amplifies over the Intermountain West. However, others show a
typical monsoon pattern with moist southerly flow. With the latter
scenario, temperatures would be closer to mid-August averages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  87  63  87 /  50  30  30  20
Dulce...........................  53  81  50  85 /  50  50  40  40
Cuba............................  59  83  58  85 /  30  40  30  30
Gallup..........................  58  86  58  87 /  20  40  30  40
El Morro........................  58  83  57  83 /  30  40  40  50
Grants..........................  60  86  60  87 /  20  40  30  50
Quemado.........................  60  84  58  84 /  30  50  40  70
Magdalena.......................  64  86  63  87 /  10  30  20  50
Datil...........................  59  84  58  84 /  20  40  30  60
Reserve.........................  60  89  57  89 /  20  40  30  70
Glenwood........................  67  94  67  95 /  20  30  30  60
Chama...........................  51  74  50  79 /  60  60  30  50
Los Alamos......................  61  82  61  83 /  40  50  20  50
Pecos...........................  59  83  59  85 /  30  30  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  53  76  51  81 /  40  60  30  50
Red River.......................  48  68  47  71 /  50  70  30  60
Angel Fire......................  48  74  46  76 /  40  60  20  60
Taos............................  55  82  54  85 /  40  40  20  40
Mora............................  54  81  53  82 /  30  40  20  60
Espanola........................  61  88  61  91 /  40  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  61  84  62  87 /  30  30  20  30
Santa Fe Airport................  61  88  61  90 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  91  68  94 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  69  93  68  95 /  20  20  10  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  95  68  97 /  20  20  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  69  93  69  95 /  20  20  20  10
Belen...........................  68  95  66  97 /  10  20  10  10
Bernalillo......................  68  94  67  97 /  20  20  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  68  95  65  96 /  10  20  10  10
Corrales........................  68  94  68  97 /  20  20  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  69  95  67  96 /  10  20  10  10
Placitas........................  67  91  65  92 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  68  94  68  95 /  20  20  20  10
Socorro.........................  69  96  69  98 /   5  10  10  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  85  61  87 /  20  20  10  30
Tijeras.........................  64  88  63  89 /  20  20  10  30
Edgewood........................  61  88  60  90 /  20  20  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  89  58  92 /  20  20   5  30
Clines Corners..................  59  85  60  87 /  20  20  10  30
Mountainair.....................  63  88  60  89 /   5  10   5  30
Gran Quivira....................  62  88  60  89 /   5  10  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  66  91  67  93 /  10   5   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  60  84  62  85 /  20  20   5  30
Capulin.........................  57  83  56  80 /  40  50  30  50
Raton...........................  56  87  55  86 /  40  40  20  50
Springer........................  58  89  57  87 /  30  40  10  50
Las Vegas.......................  57  86  57  87 /  30  30  20  40
Clayton.........................  63  91  64  87 /  40  30  20  20
Roy.............................  61  89  61  88 /  30  40  30  30
Conchas.........................  66  97  66  97 /  30  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  95  66  93 /  20  10  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  67  99  67  97 /  20  10  10  10
Clovis..........................  68  99  69 100 /   5   5  10   5
Portales........................  69 100  69 100 /   5   0   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  68  99  68  98 /   5   5  10   5
Roswell.........................  71 103  72 102 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  64  95  66  96 /   5   5   0  10
Elk.............................  61  91  63  94 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...42