832
FXUS65 KABQ 112321 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

An uptick in monsoon shower and storm coverage is expected across
western and northern areas Monday and Tuesday as the monsoon high
moves east over the south central U.S. A few storms across northeast
NM Monday afternoon and evening could become strong to severe.
Shower and storm coverage favors central and eastern areas Wednesday
as a disturbance moves across the region. Much lower shower and
storm coverage Thursday and Friday as drier air moves in behind the
system and the monsoon high builds back overhead. Temperatures will
be seasonably hot across the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Latest analysis depicts a 596dam high pressure centroid at 500hPa
directly over Ruidoso, NM, with a decent slug of mid-level dry
air over a significant portion of the CWFA. Main focus for storms
this afternoon and early evening will be across the wrn/nrn high
terrain. A weak shortwave is progressing eastward along the nrn
periphery of the aforementioned upr high. Current mesoanalysis
depicts about 500- 750 J/kg of MLCAPE in the northeast plains with
the SREF suggesting little change through the remainder of the
daylight period. Given greatest bulk shear remains well east over
OK and only modest mid- level lapse rates, anticipate mainly
clusters of cells of the pulsy nature capable of gusty winds and
small hail. Most convection will dwindle after sunset with the
exception of the northwest zones with light showers persisting
beyond midnight. No significant changes to overnight lows,
generally within 2-5F of this morning.

The upper high slides eastward for Monday, allowing return flow to
establish itself on its wrn periphery. PWATs are progged to nudge a
tad higher in the wrn/srn zones. With weaker subsidence, this will
support a greater bumper crop of storms over these areas. This may
also support a higher risk for flash flooding on the Sacramento Mtn
burn scars. Slightly stronger, though still fairly weak, southeast
low-level flow will be favored in northeast NM for the afternoon.
Another upr level disturbance embedded in the flow will track over
this same region. MLCAPE, mid-level lapse rates and bulk shear will
be marginally greater to support stronger/more persistent updrafts.
As a result, large hail and gusty downburst winds will be the main
threats. SPC provides a Marginal Risk over this area and opted to
include this language in the forecast grids. That said, widespread
severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Activity across the
northeast plains will persist into the early and mid-evening hours
before propagating eastward/dissipating. Showers/embedded isolated
storms will persist over the northwest zones through the overnight.

DPorter

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

On Tuesday, shortwaves embedded in the southwest flow across the
intermountain West between an upper level trough over the Pacific NW
and the upper high over the south central U.S. look to result in an
enhancement of shower and storm coverage along and west of the
central mountain chain. PWATs will be near to slightly above normal
for mid August and storm motion will be southwest to northeast at
around 5 to 15 mph. Most of the storms look to remain west of the
HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars, but just like any day during monsoon
season, only one storm can cause major problems. On Wednesday,
ensemble clusters agree on the upper level trough over the Pacific
NW moves east through the Rockies and desert southwest with the
higher monsoon moisture moving along with it. Storm coverage will
favor central NM during the afternoon hours shifting to eastern NM
come the evening hours. A higher coverage of showers and storms are
expected for the HPCC and Ruidoso burn scar compared to Tuesday, but
storm motion will be a little quicker from west to east at around 10
to 20 mph along the base of the upper level trough helping to reduce
residence time of heavier precip over the burn scars. Temperatures
of Tuesday and Wednesday will be slightly below average across
northwest NM, and slightly above normal across central and eastern
NM.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in much better agreement
for late this week compared to this time yesterday. Drier northwest
flow moves into the state Thursday behind Wednesday`s shortwave
trough and ahead of a developing upper high over southern CA and AZ.
PWATs drop to around half an inch across western and central NM and
around 0.75 inches across eastern NM. This along with the subsidence
behind the shortwave trough will result an much lower coverage of
showers and storms across the state, with low chances across the
mountain ranges. The upper high moves east over New Mexico Friday
strengthening to 596 dam. PWATs increase slightly to 0.75 inches
areawide as some mid level moisture moves back north. However, with
the subsidence overhead, shower and storm coverage remains low with
higher terrain areas being favored. The upper high then looks to
shift slightly east into eastern NM and West Texas Saturday in
response to an upper low moving into the Pacific NW. This will shift
the monsoon plume and higher mid level moisture over Arizona Friday
into far western NM Saturday increasing PWATs to around 0.9
inches to 1 inch and thus shower and storm chances. Temperatures
during this period will be slightly above average for most areas
cooling across western NM to near average come the weekend due to
the higher moisture inching in from the west.

Anand

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
potential short-lived MVFR conditions in showers/storms this
evening and again Monday afternoon. Low probabilities of
thunderstorm impacts this evening in general, but KGUP and KROW
are the most likely terminals among the TAF sites. KLVS is the
most likely terminal to be impacted by storms Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are anticipated over the next
several days. Precipitation chances are expected to increase Monday
and Tuesday in western and central NM as a more traditional monsoon
setup with high pressure to the east of New Mexico will develop. As
a result, the risk for locally heavy rain capable of flash flooding
will be elevated, particularly on wildfire burn scars. This pattern
appears short-lived as drier air is advected into northwest NM for
Wednesday, then spreading over the entire forecast area on Thursday.
This will significantly reduce storm coverage and allow for hotter
daytime highs. Based on the latest guidance, this drier setup could
persist into next weekend.

DPorter

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  62  88  63  86 /  30  20  30  30
Dulce...........................  48  86  50  84 /  30  30  30  50
Cuba............................  56  85  56  84 /  20  40  40  50
Gallup..........................  56  88  56  84 /  30  40  40  50
El Morro........................  56  83  56  81 /  40  60  50  70
Grants..........................  59  88  58  84 /  20  60  40  70
Quemado.........................  57  85  56  83 /  50  60  50  80
Magdalena.......................  63  87  62  86 /  20  40  30  50
Datil...........................  57  85  56  83 /  40  60  40  70
Reserve.........................  56  90  56  88 /  30  70  40  70
Glenwood........................  66  95  66  93 /  30  60  40  60
Chama...........................  48  80  49  78 /  40  50  40  50
Los Alamos......................  61  83  61  84 /  20  50  30  50
Pecos...........................  59  85  58  85 /  20  50  40  40
Cerro/Questa....................  50  81  52  81 /  30  60  40  50
Red River.......................  46  72  47  72 /  40  70  40  50
Angel Fire......................  43  76  45  76 /  30  70  40  50
Taos............................  52  85  53  85 /  20  40  30  30
Mora............................  52  82  51  82 /  20  60  40  50
Espanola........................  59  91  60  92 /  20  30  30  30
Santa Fe........................  61  86  62  86 /  20  40  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  60  89  61  89 /  10  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  92  68  93 /  20  30  30  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  68  95  66  94 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  97  66  96 /  20   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  94  67  94 /  20  10  30  20
Belen...........................  65  96  64  96 /  20  10  20  20
Bernalillo......................  66  96  66  96 /  20  10  30  20
Bosque Farms....................  64  95  63  95 /  20  10  20  20
Corrales........................  68  97  66  96 /  20  10  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  66  96  65  95 /  20  10  20  20
Placitas........................  65  91  65  92 /  20  20  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  95  66  95 /  20  10  30  20
Socorro.........................  68  99  67  98 /  10  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  86  59  86 /  20  30  30  30
Tijeras.........................  63  88  61  89 /  20  30  30  30
Edgewood........................  58  89  57  88 /  10  20  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  90  55  90 /  10  20  30  30
Clines Corners..................  57  86  57  86 /   5  30  30  20
Mountainair.....................  59  89  58  88 /  10  20  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  89  58  88 /  10  30  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  66  93  65  92 /  10  20  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  61  85  58  84 /  20  30  30  40
Capulin.........................  55  82  56  85 /  40  70  40  20
Raton...........................  54  87  55  89 /  40  60  30  30
Springer........................  55  89  56  90 /  30  60  30  30
Las Vegas.......................  55  86  56  86 /  20  50  40  30
Clayton.........................  62  87  63  92 /  30  30  40   5
Roy.............................  59  88  61  89 /  30  50  40  10
Conchas.........................  65  97  66  98 /  20  20  30   5
Santa Rosa......................  64  93  64  94 /  20  20  30   5
Tucumcari.......................  66  97  66  99 /  20  10  20   0
Clovis..........................  70  99  68  97 /  20  10  10   0
Portales........................  70 100  68  98 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  99  67  98 /  20   5  20   0
Roswell.........................  73 103  72 101 /  10   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  66  96  63  94 /  20  10  10  20
Elk.............................  62  94  59  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11