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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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080 FXUS65 KABQ 121748 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1148 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Monsoon shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across the Gila Forest to the northern mountains today and especially Tuesday. A few storms across northeast New Mexico today could become strong to severe. The highest chances for heavy rainfall on wildfire burn areas will be on Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity will decrease in coverage Wednesday into Thursday as drier air moves into the region. The monsoon high is expected to build back over New Mexico Friday and into the weekend. Hot conditions are expected to develop across much of central and eastern New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A noticeable increase in storm coverage is likely today, especially over central and western NM. One lobe of the monsoon high has moved slightly farther east into southeast NM and TX while a remnant upper level wave is drifting north over southwest AZ. Deep-layer southerly flow across eastern AZ will spread more into western NM today with PWATs increasing to near 1.2" along the state line. Storm initiation will take place across most of the central and western high terrain by 12pm then move northward around 10 mph. More storms will develop on convective outflows in valleys and nearby highlands thru the day with locally heavy rainfall. The greatest threat for flash flooding will be over western NM where training cells are likely in south to north flow. Surprisingly, WPC QPF is rather anemic today and the 00Z HREF/NBM 99th percentiles only supports values in the 0.25 to 0.75" range. Nonetheless, flooding is possible from persistent stronger cells. Burn scar areas will also be susceptible to flooding given the lower rainfall needed. However, confidence is just not high enough to support a Flash Flood Watch given the very localized higher QPF and also potential for steering flow to carry storms away from the Ruidoso area. A couple strong to severe storms are also possible today over northeast NM where a weak boundary is draped over the area under relatively stronger west-northwest flow aloft. Finally, it will be very hot again today across southeast NM where locations around Roswell reach close to 105F. Scattered showers and isolated storms are likely to continue across much of central and western NM thru tonight. The upper level wave near Phoenix will begin lifting northeast ahead of a broader trough approaching the west coast Tuesday. A well-defined moist instability axis will be stretched from south to north over central and western NM as the nose of a 70-80kt upper level jet moves into northwest AZ! Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the region with a higher risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding just about anywhere. The 00Z HREF/NBM max QPF values indicate higher QPF potential in several areas so a Flash Flood Watch is very likely for several counties. In addition, Tuesday will be a second day with potential training cells in south to north flow. Max temps will trend cooler Tuesday but still be plenty warm to support storm initiation. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 After a robust surge in monsoonal thunderstorm activity on Tuesday, conditions begin to change for the middle of the week Wednesday into Thursday. On Wednesday a shortwave trough moves across the Inter-mountain West and then into the northern plains. This allows for westerlies to develop across northern portions of New Mexico as the monsoon high pressure aloft weakens or flattens. The westerlies also support a surge in dry air across western and central New Mexico for Wednesday into Thursday. There will be a significant drop off in thunderstorm chances from Wednesday into Thursday. PWAT values drop below 0.8 inches for a good portion of region which again will limit thunderstorm activity especially on Thursday. The drier air will also heat up more so look for the heat risk to increase across the state. All that said...Wednesday will be a sneaky day for thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall for HPCC and Sacramento Mtn burn areas as not all the moisture will be decreasing by then. It probably will not be until Thursday that we can confidently go with low enough thunderstorm chances and limited impacts. Wednesday could still be a high chance of storms for the Sacramento Mtns and impacts from the South Fork burn area causing flooding from the rapid runoff. It will be a transition day for moisture so by Thursday even an isolated storm will be hard to develop. By Friday both GFS and EC ensembles show the monsoon ridge building right back over New Mexico with the drier air still entrenched over New Mexico. Any kind of monsoon moisture plume will be over AZ for the weekend. If the ridge slides more to the east then perhaps parts of W NM get back into higher moisture for thunderstorm activity. Ensembles support this to some degree but the consensus is for the ridge to build over NM. Heat risk will become the main hazard with RGV/ABQ metro getting back into the upper 90s and low 100s in the eastern plains. 39 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to erupt over the higher terrain through 20Z before moving northeastward around 5-15kt over the adjacent lower terrain. Nearly all TAF sites may be impacted by storms this afternoon and evening, sans KROW. Gusty winds, small hail and heavy rainfall will be possible with all storms, though across the northeast a severe storm or two will be possible between 21Z and 03Z. Brief MVFR vsbys will be possible in the strongest storms today. Showers and isolated storms will linger well into the evening and overnight hours once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for at least the next 7 days. A significant increase in storm coverage with locally heavy rainfall is expected today and Tuesday. Storm motion will be toward the north and east around 5 to 15 mph. Strong high pressure will begin building into the region from the west Wednesday then persist through the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will trend hotter with decreasing coverage of storms. Winds will be primarily light with poor to fair ventilation areawide in this pattern. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 64 86 61 / 10 40 40 40 Dulce........................... 83 51 84 48 / 30 50 60 40 Cuba............................ 85 57 84 55 / 40 50 70 40 Gallup.......................... 88 55 83 55 / 40 50 60 20 El Morro........................ 84 55 80 54 / 60 60 80 40 Grants.......................... 87 58 83 56 / 60 60 80 30 Quemado......................... 85 56 81 55 / 70 60 90 40 Magdalena....................... 87 62 86 61 / 40 50 70 40 Datil........................... 83 56 81 54 / 60 50 90 30 Reserve......................... 89 56 87 55 / 60 50 80 30 Glenwood........................ 94 66 92 65 / 50 40 80 20 Chama........................... 76 50 78 48 / 40 50 80 40 Los Alamos...................... 83 61 83 59 / 50 40 70 40 Pecos........................... 86 59 84 57 / 50 40 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 77 52 81 51 / 50 40 60 30 Red River....................... 67 48 72 46 / 60 40 70 30 Angel Fire...................... 75 45 75 44 / 60 30 60 20 Taos............................ 83 54 84 52 / 30 30 40 20 Mora............................ 81 52 81 51 / 60 30 60 20 Espanola........................ 90 61 91 59 / 30 40 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 85 62 86 59 / 40 50 60 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 89 61 89 59 / 30 40 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 92 68 92 66 / 30 50 60 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 67 94 65 / 20 50 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 96 66 96 64 / 20 40 30 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 68 94 66 / 20 40 40 30 Belen........................... 94 65 95 63 / 20 40 30 30 Bernalillo...................... 95 66 95 64 / 20 40 40 30 Bosque Farms.................... 95 64 95 62 / 20 40 30 30 Corrales........................ 95 67 96 65 / 20 50 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 96 66 95 64 / 20 40 30 30 Placitas........................ 92 65 91 63 / 30 40 40 30 Rio Rancho...................... 92 68 94 65 / 20 40 40 30 Socorro......................... 98 68 97 66 / 20 50 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 86 59 86 58 / 30 40 50 30 Tijeras......................... 91 62 88 60 / 30 50 50 40 Edgewood........................ 88 57 88 56 / 60 40 50 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 90 55 89 53 / 40 30 40 20 Clines Corners.................. 85 57 84 55 / 50 40 40 20 Mountainair..................... 89 58 88 57 / 40 40 40 30 Gran Quivira.................... 90 58 88 58 / 50 40 40 30 Carrizozo....................... 94 65 91 64 / 30 20 40 30 Ruidoso......................... 86 59 84 59 / 30 20 60 30 Capulin......................... 83 56 84 57 / 60 40 30 5 Raton........................... 88 55 89 55 / 60 30 30 5 Springer........................ 90 56 90 56 / 60 30 20 5 Las Vegas....................... 86 55 85 54 / 60 30 40 20 Clayton......................... 90 64 91 65 / 40 40 5 0 Roy............................. 89 60 89 61 / 60 40 10 10 Conchas......................... 97 66 96 67 / 30 40 5 20 Santa Rosa...................... 92 64 91 64 / 30 30 10 20 Tucumcari....................... 96 66 96 69 / 10 20 0 10 Clovis.......................... 101 68 98 69 / 5 10 0 10 Portales........................ 100 68 98 70 / 5 5 0 10 Fort Sumner..................... 97 68 97 68 / 5 20 5 20 Roswell......................... 104 73 101 73 / 0 0 10 10 Picacho......................... 96 63 94 64 / 10 5 30 20 Elk............................. 91 60 92 60 / 10 10 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...34