788
FXUS65 KABQ 252048
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
248 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 246 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- The potential for significant to catastrophic flash flooding
  exists through mid to late week for the Ruidoso area burn scars
  and Hermits Peak Calf Canyon burn scar.

- Urban and arroyo flash flooding, including the Albuquerque and
  Santa Fe metro areas, is possible across central and eastern
  New Mexico and tonight.

- Shower and storm coverage gradually lowers late in the week, but
  slow storm motion will keep the risk for flash flooding,
  especially on recent burn scars and saturated soils, in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Afternoon shower and thunderstorm development is once again
occurring across central and western NM and is expected to continue
through the early evening hours. PWAT values have decrease slightly
from yesterday, given the 12z ABQ sounding was at 1.07" as compared
to 1.12" from Tuesday morning. Even with that, efficient rainfall
rates are likely from any stronger/mature storm. Hi-res models
continue to paint a similar picture to yesterday with a semi-broken
line of thunderstorms forming from Raton to Silver City, though the
18z HRRR run has continued to decrease precipitation coverage with
only scattered storms across central, south-central, and northeast
NM. As it appears now, storm coverage is slightly higher than how
the 18z HRRR initialized, so would expect a scenario closer to how
yesterday played out. Areas that received heavy rainfall and/or
flooding impacts yesterday will have another threat for this again
today, especially given the saturated ground (Belen and Los Lunas
area, Chaves County for examples). Another threat continues for the
Ruidoso and HPCC burn scar areas, with higher threat levels for the
Ruidoso area. CAMs have been struggling with if/when/where storms
develop near the Sacramento Mountains and thus confidence has not
increased on what or when a flash flooding threat materializes for
the area. Nevertheless, any storm that does form across the burn
scar has the chance to produce significant to catastrophic flooding
and debris flow, given efficient precipitation rates. Outside of
flooding, a stronger to severe storm cannot be ruled out, initially
across western NM, then a chance across eastern NM later in the
afternoon and evening. Surface heating has not been ideal given
widespread cloud coverage, so confidence is not high in severe
storms. Rain chances across the forecast area look to decrease after
sundown, and getting close to no chances by midnight.

Into tomorrow, a slightly more typical monsoon day is expected (slow
and erratic storm motions driven by the terrain). What also should
help is more sufficient daytime heating, as morning low clouds are
likely to be absent, especially from eastern NM. Given this,
instability is also likely to be higher, supporting the potential
for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
However, given that bulk shear is likely to be weak, storms will
struggle to maintain themselves and are expected to be more pulse-
like in nature. CAMs also highlight decent QPF and rainfall rates
across the Sacramento Mountains near the Ruidoso burn scars once
again, and given the atmospheric conditions, the potential is there
for significant flooding once again. There remains lower confidence
on this however, as placement of storms will be instrumental in how
the scenario plays out. As we have seen this week, storms forming 10
miles to the west or east of the burn scars have caused no impacts,
thankfully sparing the village. This is likely to be the story for
Thursday, closely monitoring where storms initiate and move. Given
the potential for these storms to develop over the scars, have
issued a Flash Flood Watch for Thursday for the South Central
Mountains zone which includes Ruidoso.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Atmospheric moisture continues to decrease into the weekend, though
enough should remain for continued isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development mainly across the higher terrain, moving
off to the lower terrain. A moderate threat remains for burn scar
flash flooding, given slow and erratic storm motions. A low flash
flood threat remains elsewhere, mainly in poor drainage areas and/or
areas that received significant precipitation over the course of the
week. The upper level high pressure slowly shifts westward over the
course of the latter half of the week, situating itself over NM by
this weekend. Given that, temperatures are likely to return to near
normal across the state. This will be somewhat short lived as the
high continues to shift westward to AZ, beginning to funnel moisture
over its northern periphery. Concurrently, a backdoor front is
projected to dive into NM early next week, providing a bump in storm
coverage across the region. Looking further near July 4th, the CPC
has designated a region of southwest NM in a high risk (>60% chance)
for heavy precipitation. It appears another monsoon surge is likely
to be intruding in the middle of next week thanks to a high to our
east and a trough to our west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form, though coverage is likely to be less than
yesterday. Highest confidence in storm location is along and south
of the Interstate 40 corridor initially, expanding eastward of
Interstate 25 by the evening. TEMPOs at most central NM TAF sites
for afternoon to evening TS, mainly from 21z to 02z, with lingering
RA and TS possible afterwards. MVFR to locally IFR ceilings and
visibility are possible within any thunderstorm. Outside of storms,
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail, with decreasing atmospheric
moisture limiting the potential of overnight low clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Locally heavy rainfall continues to be a threat across the state
today, mainly across central and eastern NM as we get into the
evening hours. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially in
locations around and downstream of burn scars, as well as areas that
have already received substantial rainfall this week. Coverage of
storms continues to gradually decrease through the latter half of
the week, though heavy rainfall is still of concern given slow and
erratic storm motions. The weekend appears to be the driest time of
the forecast period as a high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures
warm to near late June/early July averages. Shower and storm
coverage then begins to increase again late weekend and into early
next week as moisture begins to replenish. Further out, there is
increasing confidence in heavy rainfall across western NM around the
4th of July holiday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  53  91  55  93 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  85  43  88 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  50  84  53  86 /   5   5   0  10
Gallup..........................  44  88  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  49  84  51  85 /   5   5   0  10
Grants..........................  48  87  50  88 /  10  10   0  10
Quemado.........................  52  84  53  85 /  10  10   5  10
Magdalena.......................  57  83  58  83 /  40  30  10  40
Datil...........................  53  82  54  83 /  30  20  10  30
Reserve.........................  48  88  50  91 /  10  10  10  20
Glenwood........................  53  91  54  93 /  10  20  10  30
Chama...........................  43  79  44  81 /   0   0   0   5
Los Alamos......................  56  80  58  82 /  20  10   5  20
Pecos...........................  53  78  54  81 /  20  20  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  49  80  51  82 /   5  10   0  10
Red River.......................  42  70  43  72 /  10  10   0  20
Angel Fire......................  36  74  37  77 /  10  20   0  20
Taos............................  47  82  49  85 /   5  10   0  10
Mora............................  46  75  46  80 /  20  20   5  30
Espanola........................  55  87  57  89 /  10  10   5  10
Santa Fe........................  56  82  58  83 /  20  10   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  55  85  57  86 /  20  10   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  88  65  89 /  30  10  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  61  89  64  91 /  30  10   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  61  91  63  93 /  20  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  62  89  64  91 /  20  10   5  10
Belen...........................  59  90  60  91 /  20  10  10  10
Bernalillo......................  61  91  62  93 /  20  10   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  58  90  60  92 /  20  10   5  10
Corrales........................  61  91  62  93 /  20  10   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  90  61  92 /  20  10  10  10
Placitas........................  61  87  63  88 /  30  10   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  61  90  63  92 /  20  10   5  10
Socorro.........................  62  91  64  91 /  40  20  10  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  82  57  83 /  30  10  10  20
Tijeras.........................  56  84  59  85 /  30  20  10  20
Edgewood........................  51  82  53  84 /  30  20  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  83  50  85 /  30  20  10  30
Clines Corners..................  53  79  54  79 /  30  30  10  30
Mountainair.....................  54  81  56  82 /  40  30  20  30
Gran Quivira....................  54  82  55  81 /  40  40  20  40
Carrizozo.......................  60  82  61  82 /  50  60  20  50
Ruidoso.........................  55  75  54  75 /  50  70  30  70
Capulin.........................  51  78  52  81 /  30  30  10  20
Raton...........................  50  82  50  85 /  30  20   5  20
Springer........................  54  84  52  86 /  30  20   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  51  77  51  82 /  20  20   5  30
Clayton.........................  60  84  60  87 /  30  30  10   5
Roy.............................  57  81  56  83 /  30  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  62  87  61  90 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Rosa......................  59  85  60  86 /  30  30  10  20
Tucumcari.......................  61  86  62  87 /  30  30  20  10
Clovis..........................  63  85  64  88 /  30  40  30  20
Portales........................  63  86  63  88 /  30  50  30  20
Fort Sumner.....................  61  87  62  88 /  30  40  20  20
Roswell.........................  66  89  67  91 /  30  40  20  30
Picacho.........................  59  82  60  83 /  40  60  20  60
Elk.............................  56  80  57  82 /  50  70  30  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ207-208-212-214-
215-218>226-229-233-238>241.

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77