179
FXUS65 KABQ 162126
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
326 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Record and near record high temperatures are forecast for the next
seven days as a strong high pressure system remains staunchly in
place over New Mexico. Scattered-to-isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor western areas Saturday afternoon and
evening, then western and northern areas Sunday through Tuesday.
Monsoon moisture will gradually increase during the mid-to-latter
half of the week with increased thunderstorm coverage and rainfall
intensity, but it will still be very hot through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A 596 dam upper high is centered over Socorro County this afternoon.
Even with the mid level subsidence from the high, intense
surface heating combining with higher mid level moisture across the
southern high terrain and a surface boundary across the eastern
highlands and plains has resulted in the development of some
isolated to scattered showers and storms in the aforementioned
areas. Storms in the Ruidoso area are impacting the surrounding burn
scars as of 2:00 PM. Outside of the storms, it is a hot day
across the region under the high with lower elevations across
western and central NM in the 90s and some 100s across the lower RGV
and eastern plains. Storm motion this afternoon and evening will be
slow and erratic due to a lack of mid and upper level flow under the
high circulation. Outside of the southern mountain peaks, small
wetting footprints from the shower and storm activity is expected
and gusty and erratic wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be the main
threats. Storm activity will quickly dissipate shortly after sunset
with the loss of daytime heating with clearing skies overnight.

For Saturday, the upper high meanders a little to over northeast NM
and strengthens a touch to 597 dam. This nudge to the northeast will
help direct a plume of monsoon moisture over Arizona and this plume
looks to clip far western NM, basically west of the Continental
Divide. Isolated to scattered shower and storm activity will favor
these aforementioned areas during the afternoon and evening hours
with storm motion to the north. Outside of the western mountain
peaks, little wetting rainfall is expected. In regards to Ruidoso
and the south central mountains, the new position of the high will
place this area under mid to upper level easterly flow. Some drier
mid level air look to move in from the east and this looks to help
greatly limit shower and storm activity across the south central
mountains. If any shower or storm does develop, it would move west
away from the Ruidoso burn scars. Elsewhere, a weak surface boundary
across the east central plains, near Clovis and Portales, could be a
forcing mechanism for a stray shower or storm during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Due to pretty high dewpoint
depressions, the main threat from this activity will be gusty and
erratic winds and sprinkles. The bigger story for Saturday areawide
will be the heat due to being under the 597 dam upper high. High
temperatures will challenge and potentially surpass daily records.
Any shower and storm activity across far western NM will gradually
die down after sunset and fully dissipate before midnight with skies
clearing towards daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Record and near record heat will continue through Thursday as a
strong high pressure system varies its position around the
forecast area. The operational run of the ECMWF indicates 500 mb
heights will reach 600 DAM at times. Subsidence and dry air
within the high pressure system will limit convection during the
first part of the week, with chances for thunderstorms limited to
western and north central areas where occasional disturbances
embedded in the periphery of the ridge will draw modest moisture
north and northeastward. Precip chances will become more
widespread over northeast areas late Monday and Tuesday as a
backdoor front sags into northeast NM with some moisture. Models
vary on whether or not the front will linger over eastern areas
through Wednesday. They agree better on the high pressure system
shifting eastward over NM`s eastern border and maybe even over the
TX panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday drawing better monsoon
moisture north and northeastward over the forecast area with
increased thunderstorm coverage both days. PWATs are forecast to
increase from around 0.50-0.95" Sunday afternoon to around
0.80-1.10" Thursday afternoon, when the risk of locally heavy
rainfall will grow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Isolated showers and storms will develop over the high terrain and
along a boundary across the eastern plains early this afternoon.
Main hazards will be gusty and erratic winds of up to 30 to 40
kts. Storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they move
down in elevation mid to late afternoon. Included a TEMPO in KLVS
for the possibility of these gusty and erratic winds impacting the
site this evening. Included VCSH for KABQ, KAEG, and KTCC this
evening around 00Z due to the possibility of outflows from showers
and storms from the southwest mountains approaching these sites.
Otherwise, very hot temperatures around 10 degrees above average
will create density altitude concerns this afternoon. Shower and
storm activity quickly dissipate around sunset with clearing skies
and light winds overnight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the end of
next week. An upper high will remain somewhere over New Mexico
through at least the middle of next week. This will result in very
hot temperatures and isolated to at most scattered storms mainly
over the western and northern high terrain each afternoon through
mid next week. There could be better chances for monsoon showers and
storms across western New Mexico late next week as the high gets
shifted slightly east in response to an upper low moving into the
Pacific Northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  60  96  64  93 /   0   5  20  10
Dulce...........................  48  92  54  90 /   0   5  10  30
Cuba............................  59  90  60  90 /   0  10  10  20
Gallup..........................  56  93  57  89 /   5  20  40  20
El Morro........................  57  89  57  86 /  10  30  40  30
Grants..........................  54  93  55  90 /  10  30  20  20
Quemado.........................  58  90  57  88 /  30  40  30  30
Magdalena.......................  63  91  63  89 /  20  20  10  10
Datil...........................  58  88  58  86 /  30  30  20  20
Reserve.........................  60  93  58  93 /  40  40  20  20
Glenwood........................  69  98  66  98 /  30  40  30  20
Chama...........................  51  86  53  84 /   0  10  10  30
Los Alamos......................  59  90  61  88 /   0  10   5  20
Pecos...........................  61  90  60  88 /   5  10  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  87  55  86 /   0   5   0  30
Red River.......................  50  78  51  77 /   0   5   0  30
Angel Fire......................  35  82  41  80 /   0  10   0  20
Taos............................  50  91  53  89 /   0   5   0  20
Mora............................  56  87  56  85 /   5  10  10  20
Espanola........................  58  97  62  95 /   0  10   5  10
Santa Fe........................  62  92  62  89 /   0  10  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  61  95  62  93 /   0  10   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  97  70  96 /  10  10  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  98  69  97 /  10   5  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  69 100  68  99 /  10   5  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  98  68  97 /  10   5  10   5
Belen...........................  66 100  65  98 /  10   5  10   0
Bernalillo......................  67 100  67  99 /   5   5  10   5
Bosque Farms....................  67 100  65  98 /  10   5  10   0
Corrales........................  69 100  68  99 /  10   5  10   5
Los Lunas.......................  67 100  66  98 /  10   5  10   0
Placitas........................  67  97  67  95 /   5   5  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  68  99  68  98 /  10   5  10   5
Socorro.........................  68 101  68  99 /  20  10   5   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  90  64  88 /   5  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  65  93  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  60  94  60  92 /   5  10   5   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  95  55  93 /   5  10   5   5
Clines Corners..................  60  92  59  88 /  10  10   5   5
Mountainair.....................  61  91  60  91 /  10  10   5   5
Gran Quivira....................  62  91  61  91 /  10  10   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  67  93  64  94 /  20  20   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  63  85  61  86 /  10  10   0  10
Capulin.........................  58  91  61  88 /  10   5   0  10
Raton...........................  55  96  58  93 /   5   5   0  10
Springer........................  53  96  57  94 /   5   5   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  56  91  58  88 /   5  10   5  10
Clayton.........................  66  99  68  95 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  59  94  62  91 /  10   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  63 102  66  99 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  62  99  64  94 /  20   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  69 102  70  99 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  70 100  69 101 /  20  10   0   0
Portales........................  70 101  69 100 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68 100  68  98 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  72 104  71 101 /  10   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  65  96  65  95 /  10   5   0   0
Elk.............................  63  93  61  93 /   5  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-238.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...44