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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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179 FXUS65 KABQ 162126 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 326 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Record and near record high temperatures are forecast for the next seven days as a strong high pressure system remains staunchly in place over New Mexico. Scattered-to-isolated showers and thunderstorms will favor western areas Saturday afternoon and evening, then western and northern areas Sunday through Tuesday. Monsoon moisture will gradually increase during the mid-to-latter half of the week with increased thunderstorm coverage and rainfall intensity, but it will still be very hot through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A 596 dam upper high is centered over Socorro County this afternoon. Even with the mid level subsidence from the high, intense surface heating combining with higher mid level moisture across the southern high terrain and a surface boundary across the eastern highlands and plains has resulted in the development of some isolated to scattered showers and storms in the aforementioned areas. Storms in the Ruidoso area are impacting the surrounding burn scars as of 2:00 PM. Outside of the storms, it is a hot day across the region under the high with lower elevations across western and central NM in the 90s and some 100s across the lower RGV and eastern plains. Storm motion this afternoon and evening will be slow and erratic due to a lack of mid and upper level flow under the high circulation. Outside of the southern mountain peaks, small wetting footprints from the shower and storm activity is expected and gusty and erratic wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be the main threats. Storm activity will quickly dissipate shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating with clearing skies overnight. For Saturday, the upper high meanders a little to over northeast NM and strengthens a touch to 597 dam. This nudge to the northeast will help direct a plume of monsoon moisture over Arizona and this plume looks to clip far western NM, basically west of the Continental Divide. Isolated to scattered shower and storm activity will favor these aforementioned areas during the afternoon and evening hours with storm motion to the north. Outside of the western mountain peaks, little wetting rainfall is expected. In regards to Ruidoso and the south central mountains, the new position of the high will place this area under mid to upper level easterly flow. Some drier mid level air look to move in from the east and this looks to help greatly limit shower and storm activity across the south central mountains. If any shower or storm does develop, it would move west away from the Ruidoso burn scars. Elsewhere, a weak surface boundary across the east central plains, near Clovis and Portales, could be a forcing mechanism for a stray shower or storm during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Due to pretty high dewpoint depressions, the main threat from this activity will be gusty and erratic winds and sprinkles. The bigger story for Saturday areawide will be the heat due to being under the 597 dam upper high. High temperatures will challenge and potentially surpass daily records. Any shower and storm activity across far western NM will gradually die down after sunset and fully dissipate before midnight with skies clearing towards daybreak. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Record and near record heat will continue through Thursday as a strong high pressure system varies its position around the forecast area. The operational run of the ECMWF indicates 500 mb heights will reach 600 DAM at times. Subsidence and dry air within the high pressure system will limit convection during the first part of the week, with chances for thunderstorms limited to western and north central areas where occasional disturbances embedded in the periphery of the ridge will draw modest moisture north and northeastward. Precip chances will become more widespread over northeast areas late Monday and Tuesday as a backdoor front sags into northeast NM with some moisture. Models vary on whether or not the front will linger over eastern areas through Wednesday. They agree better on the high pressure system shifting eastward over NM`s eastern border and maybe even over the TX panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday drawing better monsoon moisture north and northeastward over the forecast area with increased thunderstorm coverage both days. PWATs are forecast to increase from around 0.50-0.95" Sunday afternoon to around 0.80-1.10" Thursday afternoon, when the risk of locally heavy rainfall will grow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Isolated showers and storms will develop over the high terrain and along a boundary across the eastern plains early this afternoon. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic winds of up to 30 to 40 kts. Storms will struggle to maintain their strength as they move down in elevation mid to late afternoon. Included a TEMPO in KLVS for the possibility of these gusty and erratic winds impacting the site this evening. Included VCSH for KABQ, KAEG, and KTCC this evening around 00Z due to the possibility of outflows from showers and storms from the southwest mountains approaching these sites. Otherwise, very hot temperatures around 10 degrees above average will create density altitude concerns this afternoon. Shower and storm activity quickly dissipate around sunset with clearing skies and light winds overnight and tomorrow morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the end of next week. An upper high will remain somewhere over New Mexico through at least the middle of next week. This will result in very hot temperatures and isolated to at most scattered storms mainly over the western and northern high terrain each afternoon through mid next week. There could be better chances for monsoon showers and storms across western New Mexico late next week as the high gets shifted slightly east in response to an upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 60 96 64 93 / 0 5 20 10 Dulce........................... 48 92 54 90 / 0 5 10 30 Cuba............................ 59 90 60 90 / 0 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 56 93 57 89 / 5 20 40 20 El Morro........................ 57 89 57 86 / 10 30 40 30 Grants.......................... 54 93 55 90 / 10 30 20 20 Quemado......................... 58 90 57 88 / 30 40 30 30 Magdalena....................... 63 91 63 89 / 20 20 10 10 Datil........................... 58 88 58 86 / 30 30 20 20 Reserve......................... 60 93 58 93 / 40 40 20 20 Glenwood........................ 69 98 66 98 / 30 40 30 20 Chama........................... 51 86 53 84 / 0 10 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 59 90 61 88 / 0 10 5 20 Pecos........................... 61 90 60 88 / 5 10 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 87 55 86 / 0 5 0 30 Red River....................... 50 78 51 77 / 0 5 0 30 Angel Fire...................... 35 82 41 80 / 0 10 0 20 Taos............................ 50 91 53 89 / 0 5 0 20 Mora............................ 56 87 56 85 / 5 10 10 20 Espanola........................ 58 97 62 95 / 0 10 5 10 Santa Fe........................ 62 92 62 89 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 61 95 62 93 / 0 10 5 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 97 70 96 / 10 10 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 98 69 97 / 10 5 10 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 69 100 68 99 / 10 5 10 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 98 68 97 / 10 5 10 5 Belen........................... 66 100 65 98 / 10 5 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 67 100 67 99 / 5 5 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 67 100 65 98 / 10 5 10 0 Corrales........................ 69 100 68 99 / 10 5 10 5 Los Lunas....................... 67 100 66 98 / 10 5 10 0 Placitas........................ 67 97 67 95 / 5 5 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 68 99 68 98 / 10 5 10 5 Socorro......................... 68 101 68 99 / 20 10 5 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 63 90 64 88 / 5 10 10 10 Tijeras......................... 65 93 65 91 / 10 10 10 10 Edgewood........................ 60 94 60 92 / 5 10 5 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 95 55 93 / 5 10 5 5 Clines Corners.................. 60 92 59 88 / 10 10 5 5 Mountainair..................... 61 91 60 91 / 10 10 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 62 91 61 91 / 10 10 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 67 93 64 94 / 20 20 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 63 85 61 86 / 10 10 0 10 Capulin......................... 58 91 61 88 / 10 5 0 10 Raton........................... 55 96 58 93 / 5 5 0 10 Springer........................ 53 96 57 94 / 5 5 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 56 91 58 88 / 5 10 5 10 Clayton......................... 66 99 68 95 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 59 94 62 91 / 10 5 0 0 Conchas......................... 63 102 66 99 / 20 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 62 99 64 94 / 20 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 102 70 99 / 20 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 70 100 69 101 / 20 10 0 0 Portales........................ 70 101 69 100 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 100 68 98 / 20 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 72 104 71 101 / 10 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 65 96 65 95 / 10 5 0 0 Elk............................. 63 93 61 93 / 5 10 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-238. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ219-238. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...44