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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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798 FXUS65 KABQ 122322 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today and again tomorrow afternoon and evening. The potential for heavy rainfall rates will increase the risk of flash flooding over recent burn scars. Some storms may become strong to severe across the northeast this afternoon and evening as well. A warming and drying trend will commence Wednesday and last through the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s will create heat risk concerns throughout central and eastern NM late week through the weekend. Shower and storm chances will gradually increase again early to mid next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon. Though there was a little CIN to still overcome across NE NM, it`s clear that it is quickly eroding this afternoon as storms are rapidly developing over Union County. It`s also still expected that storms moving off the Sangre de Cristo Mtns will strengthen in this environment across NE NM where 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE and around 25kt of effective shear are present. Thus, a few strong to severe storms are likely through the evening across Colfax, Harding and Union counties. Elsewhere, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially in storms that get anchored to the high terrain. That said, in general, storm motion is around 5-10 mph toward the north across the southern half of the state, and toward the northeast around 5 to 15 mph. Much like last night, storms should continue well into the evening and overnight hours, though with less intensity with time. Meanwhile this afternoon, the monsoon high remains split in two, with the dominant high center over west Texas and secondary center off the coast of CA over the Pacific. The inverted trough/weakness over AZ today will get ushered to the east on Tuesday by another west coast trough. Forcing from this feature combined with PWATs increasing to between 1-1.2 inches areawide will allow for greater storm coverage on Tuesday afternoon. Storm motions should be faster than today, however, with the high octane moisture present and forcing, heavy rainfall will still be a concern, especially over burn scars. A Flood Watch may be needed for Tuesday for the burn scars, at minimum. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Wednesday will mark the start of a drying trend across the state. The elongation of the sub-tropical ridge will push drier air into the Four Corners region, decreasing precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon across the western high terrain. There looks to be just enough moisture for isolated storms along the central mountain chain eastward, but flash flooding concerns will be on the downtrend. Thursday through the weekend will be even drier as the Monsoon High centers itself over the state. As a result, high temps will climb to 5-10 degrees above average areawide, creating moderate to major heat risk concerns throughout central and eastern NM. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging will amplify over the Intermountain West late week into the weekend, keeping the hot and dry conditions around. PWATs will gradually increase to near climatological averages by Sunday, introducing isolated to scattered storms to the typically favored areas of the western and northern mountains. Looking beyond this weekend, models remain in good agreement that ridging will remain over the state. This will continue to advect moisture into AZ from the south and this monsoonal moisture plume may skirt western NM. Precipitation chances will likely remain low for central and eastern areas through at least the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-lived MFR conditions in stronger storms this evening then again Tuesday afternoon. Storms are forecast to be out of the KABQ/KAEG airspace by 02Z latest this evening. An uptick in storm coverage is forecast Tuesday afternoon and could impact all terminals except for KTCC and KROW prior to the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 There are no critical fire weather conditions for at least the next 7 days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for the rest of today and again on Tuesday. Storm motions today will be around 5-10 mph toward the north south of I-40, and 5 to 15 mph toward the northeast across northern NM. On Tuesday, storm motions will increase to 10 to 20 mph toward the east and northeast. On Wednesday, a downtrend in storm coverage will commence as a dry slot punches in from the west. Storm coverage will be reduced significantly Wednesday afternoon and will be reduced further on Thursday and Friday as dry air remains in place and the upper high builds back overhead. With less storm coverage, expect temperatures to rise. All areas will be a few to several degrees above normal by the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 85 58 87 / 40 40 30 0 Dulce........................... 53 83 50 82 / 50 60 40 10 Cuba............................ 57 83 55 82 / 50 70 40 10 Gallup.......................... 56 83 54 86 / 50 60 20 0 El Morro........................ 56 80 54 83 / 60 80 40 10 Grants.......................... 56 83 54 85 / 60 80 30 10 Quemado......................... 57 81 54 84 / 50 90 40 20 Magdalena....................... 62 85 60 85 / 50 70 30 20 Datil........................... 56 81 54 82 / 50 90 30 20 Reserve......................... 57 86 55 88 / 40 80 30 20 Glenwood........................ 64 91 63 92 / 40 70 30 20 Chama........................... 51 77 47 77 / 50 80 40 20 Los Alamos...................... 61 82 59 82 / 40 70 30 20 Pecos........................... 58 84 56 83 / 40 60 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 53 80 51 79 / 40 60 30 30 Red River....................... 48 71 47 70 / 40 70 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 46 75 45 75 / 30 60 20 30 Taos............................ 54 83 52 83 / 30 40 20 10 Mora............................ 53 81 51 81 / 30 60 20 20 Espanola........................ 62 90 60 89 / 40 50 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 62 85 59 84 / 50 60 40 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 88 58 87 / 40 50 30 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 90 65 89 / 50 50 50 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 67 91 65 91 / 50 40 30 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 93 64 93 / 40 30 30 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 92 65 91 / 40 40 30 5 Belen........................... 65 94 63 94 / 40 30 30 5 Bernalillo...................... 66 93 64 92 / 40 40 30 5 Bosque Farms.................... 64 94 62 93 / 40 30 30 5 Corrales........................ 66 94 64 92 / 50 40 40 5 Los Lunas....................... 65 94 63 93 / 40 30 30 5 Placitas........................ 65 89 62 89 / 40 40 40 10 Rio Rancho...................... 67 93 65 91 / 40 40 30 5 Socorro......................... 68 94 65 94 / 40 40 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 85 58 84 / 40 50 40 10 Tijeras......................... 62 87 60 87 / 40 50 40 10 Edgewood........................ 58 87 57 87 / 40 50 30 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 89 54 88 / 30 40 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 57 84 56 84 / 40 40 20 10 Mountainair..................... 59 87 58 86 / 30 40 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 59 88 58 87 / 40 40 30 20 Carrizozo....................... 65 91 65 90 / 20 40 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 59 83 58 82 / 20 60 40 40 Capulin......................... 57 84 57 82 / 40 30 5 40 Raton........................... 56 88 56 87 / 30 30 5 20 Springer........................ 57 90 56 89 / 30 30 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 56 85 55 85 / 30 40 20 20 Clayton......................... 64 92 64 91 / 50 5 0 20 Roy............................. 61 88 61 88 / 40 10 10 20 Conchas......................... 66 96 67 97 / 40 5 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 65 92 64 94 / 30 10 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 67 97 69 98 / 30 0 10 5 Clovis.......................... 68 98 69 97 / 5 0 10 10 Portales........................ 67 97 69 97 / 5 0 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 68 97 68 97 / 30 5 10 10 Roswell......................... 72 101 72 101 / 5 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 64 94 64 92 / 5 30 20 30 Elk............................. 61 91 61 88 / 5 40 30 40 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...11