798
FXUS65 KABQ 122322 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today and
again tomorrow afternoon and evening. The potential for heavy
rainfall rates will increase the risk of flash flooding over
recent burn scars. Some storms may become strong to severe across
the northeast this afternoon and evening as well. A warming and
drying trend will commence Wednesday and last through the weekend.
Temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s will create heat risk
concerns throughout central and eastern NM late week through the
weekend. Shower and storm chances will gradually increase again
early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage
through the remainder of the afternoon. Though there was a little
CIN to still overcome across NE NM, it`s clear that it is quickly
eroding this afternoon as storms are rapidly developing over Union
County. It`s also still expected that storms moving off the Sangre
de Cristo Mtns will strengthen in this environment across NE NM where
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE and around 25kt of effective shear are
present. Thus, a few strong to severe storms are likely through the
evening across Colfax, Harding and Union counties. Elsewhere,
locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially in storms that
get anchored to the high terrain. That said, in general, storm
motion is around 5-10 mph toward the north across the southern half
of the state, and toward the northeast around 5 to 15 mph. Much like
last night, storms should continue well into the evening and
overnight hours, though with less intensity with time.

Meanwhile this afternoon, the monsoon high remains split in two,
with the dominant high center over west Texas and secondary center
off the coast of CA over the Pacific. The inverted trough/weakness
over AZ today will get ushered to the east on Tuesday by another
west coast trough. Forcing from this feature combined with PWATs
increasing to between 1-1.2 inches areawide will allow for greater
storm coverage on Tuesday afternoon. Storm motions should be faster
than today, however, with the high octane moisture present and
forcing, heavy rainfall will still be a concern, especially over
burn scars. A Flood Watch may be needed for Tuesday for the burn
scars, at minimum.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Wednesday will mark the start of a drying trend across the state.
The elongation of the sub-tropical ridge will push drier air into
the Four Corners region, decreasing precipitation chances Wednesday
afternoon across the western high terrain. There looks to be just
enough moisture for isolated storms along the central mountain chain
eastward, but flash flooding concerns will be on the downtrend.
Thursday through the weekend will be even drier as the Monsoon High
centers itself over the state. As a result, high temps will climb to
5-10 degrees above average areawide, creating moderate to major heat
risk concerns throughout central and eastern NM. Ensemble guidance
is in good agreement that ridging will amplify over the
Intermountain West late week into the weekend, keeping the hot and
dry conditions around. PWATs will gradually increase to near
climatological averages by Sunday, introducing isolated to scattered
storms to the typically favored areas of the western and northern
mountains. Looking beyond this weekend, models remain in good
agreement that ridging will remain over the state. This will
continue to advect moisture into AZ from the south and this
monsoonal moisture plume may skirt western NM. Precipitation chances
will likely remain low for central and eastern areas through at
least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MFR conditions in stronger storms this evening then
again Tuesday afternoon. Storms are forecast to be out of the
KABQ/KAEG airspace by 02Z latest this evening. An uptick in storm
coverage is forecast Tuesday afternoon and could impact all
terminals except for KTCC and KROW prior to the end of the TAF
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

There are no critical fire weather conditions for at least the next
7 days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
for the rest of today and again on Tuesday. Storm motions today will
be around 5-10 mph toward the north south of I-40, and 5 to 15 mph
toward the northeast across northern NM. On Tuesday, storm motions
will increase to 10 to 20 mph toward the east and northeast. On
Wednesday, a downtrend in storm coverage will commence as a dry slot
punches in from the west. Storm coverage will be reduced
significantly Wednesday afternoon and will be reduced further on
Thursday and Friday as dry air remains in place and the upper high
builds back overhead. With less storm coverage, expect temperatures
to rise. All areas will be a few to several degrees above normal by
the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  85  58  87 /  40  40  30   0
Dulce...........................  53  83  50  82 /  50  60  40  10
Cuba............................  57  83  55  82 /  50  70  40  10
Gallup..........................  56  83  54  86 /  50  60  20   0
El Morro........................  56  80  54  83 /  60  80  40  10
Grants..........................  56  83  54  85 /  60  80  30  10
Quemado.........................  57  81  54  84 /  50  90  40  20
Magdalena.......................  62  85  60  85 /  50  70  30  20
Datil...........................  56  81  54  82 /  50  90  30  20
Reserve.........................  57  86  55  88 /  40  80  30  20
Glenwood........................  64  91  63  92 /  40  70  30  20
Chama...........................  51  77  47  77 /  50  80  40  20
Los Alamos......................  61  82  59  82 /  40  70  30  20
Pecos...........................  58  84  56  83 /  40  60  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  53  80  51  79 /  40  60  30  30
Red River.......................  48  71  47  70 /  40  70  30  30
Angel Fire......................  46  75  45  75 /  30  60  20  30
Taos............................  54  83  52  83 /  30  40  20  10
Mora............................  53  81  51  81 /  30  60  20  20
Espanola........................  62  90  60  89 /  40  50  30  10
Santa Fe........................  62  85  59  84 /  50  60  40  10
Santa Fe Airport................  60  88  58  87 /  40  50  30  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  90  65  89 /  50  50  50  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  91  65  91 /  50  40  30   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  66  93  64  93 /  40  30  30   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  68  92  65  91 /  40  40  30   5
Belen...........................  65  94  63  94 /  40  30  30   5
Bernalillo......................  66  93  64  92 /  40  40  30   5
Bosque Farms....................  64  94  62  93 /  40  30  30   5
Corrales........................  66  94  64  92 /  50  40  40   5
Los Lunas.......................  65  94  63  93 /  40  30  30   5
Placitas........................  65  89  62  89 /  40  40  40  10
Rio Rancho......................  67  93  65  91 /  40  40  30   5
Socorro.........................  68  94  65  94 /  40  40  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  85  58  84 /  40  50  40  10
Tijeras.........................  62  87  60  87 /  40  50  40  10
Edgewood........................  58  87  57  87 /  40  50  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  89  54  88 /  30  40  20  10
Clines Corners..................  57  84  56  84 /  40  40  20  10
Mountainair.....................  59  87  58  86 /  30  40  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  59  88  58  87 /  40  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  65  91  65  90 /  20  40  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  59  83  58  82 /  20  60  40  40
Capulin.........................  57  84  57  82 /  40  30   5  40
Raton...........................  56  88  56  87 /  30  30   5  20
Springer........................  57  90  56  89 /  30  30   5  20
Las Vegas.......................  56  85  55  85 /  30  40  20  20
Clayton.........................  64  92  64  91 /  50   5   0  20
Roy.............................  61  88  61  88 /  40  10  10  20
Conchas.........................  66  96  67  97 /  40   5  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  65  92  64  94 /  30  10  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  67  97  69  98 /  30   0  10   5
Clovis..........................  68  98  69  97 /   5   0  10  10
Portales........................  67  97  69  97 /   5   0  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  68  97  68  97 /  30   5  10  10
Roswell.........................  72 101  72 101 /   5  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  64  94  64  92 /   5  30  20  30
Elk.............................  61  91  61  88 /   5  40  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11