592
FXUS65 KABQ 140010 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
610 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening across
western and central New Mexico. Locally heavy rain and flash
flooding will be possible. Dry air will punch into the state on
Wednesday, limiting the potential for afternoon thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, though storms may still
develop around Ruidoso on Wednesday. Isolated storms will be
possible Friday through the weekend, but the heat will remain.
Triple digit heat will be likely for much of the eastern plains
and portions of the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have erupted across much of western and
central NM this afternoon as the weakness that was over AZ
yesterday shifts eastward across NM. Updrafts have been
struggling to maintain themselves, and storm motion is generally
strong enough to have limited excessive rainfall at any one
location so far. However, training cells may lead to flash
flooding concerns, like that over the northern portion of the
Hermit`s Peak Calf Canyon burn scar, through the evening.

The aforementioned weakness/trough axis will continue to track
eastward through Wednesday morning. Dry air behind the trough
axis will push into NM in the afternoon allowing the plume of
moisture to set up over eastern NM and west TX. This will limit
precipitation chances across the west, but the best moisture will
line up from Lincoln County northeastward to Quay County. A few
storms could develop along this moisture gradient, to include
areas around Ruidoso, in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall
will remain possible. Storm motions will be toward the east or
southeast around 5-10 mph. Any storms that develop should
diminish around sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

On Thursday, the western centroid of the high will shift back
toward the east with the high elongated from west of the northern
Baja to central NM. Dry air aloft will remain in place, allowing
for few storms to develop in the afternoon. If storms form, they
will favor the southern high terrain, but few storms are expected
overall. PWATs will drop to near 0.5-0.6 inches. Temperatures will
continue to trend upward, except across far northeast NM due to a
weak front sliding down the plains. On Friday, a 596dam high
will be squarely centered over NM. Temperatures will continue to
inch upward in the absence of much convection. There may be a
isolated storms across the southwest and south central mountains
once again, but PWATs only inch slightly upward. Through the
weekend and into Monday, the upper high will shift slightly
eastward and strength to 597-599dam. The shift eastward will allow
a traditional monsoon plume of moisture will stand up over
eastern AZ and far western NM. Storm coverage will be relatively
minimal elsewhere across NM though can`t rule out a few storms
over the central mountain chain. The bigger story will be the
heat, with a few heat advisories not out of the question.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually decrease in
coverage to isolated through the course of the evening, with a few
cells lingering after midnight over northwest, west central, south
central, and southeast areas. Drier air will filter over the
forecast area from the northwest on Wednesday with significantly
fewer thunderstorms, higher cloud bases, and some gusty winds in
the late afternoon until sunset. Scattered-to-isolated showers and
thunderstorms will favor the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento
Mountains eastward Wednesday afternoon with spottier activity over
the mountains west of the Rio Grande.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
seven days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the evening with wetting rains likely and flash flooding
will be possible. Dry air will punch into NM from the west on
Wednesday, which will limit precip chances through the rest of the
week. Daytime RH will also fall, with near 15% RH possible Friday
through the weekend. Winds will remain rather light, though strong
outflows will be possible with any isolated thunderstorms that
develop. High temperatures will rise a bit each day for the rest
of the week as the upper high moves back over NM. Above normal
temperatures will be the rule Thursday through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  89  57  93 /  40   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  51  83  46  88 /  40  10   0   0
Cuba............................  55  83  55  88 /  40   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  53  86  50  90 /  30   0   0   0
El Morro........................  54  82  51  87 /  40  10   0   0
Grants..........................  54  86  51  91 /  30  10   0   0
Quemado.........................  54  83  53  87 /  40  20   0   5
Magdalena.......................  59  85  60  89 /  40  10   0   0
Datil...........................  53  82  54  87 /  30  20   0   5
Reserve.........................  54  88  56  92 /  40  10   0   5
Glenwood........................  62  93  64  96 /  30  20   0   5
Chama...........................  48  77  46  81 /  40  10   0   0
Los Alamos......................  59  81  60  85 /  30  10   0   5
Pecos...........................  55  83  56  86 /  30  10   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  51  79  48  82 /  30  20   5   5
Red River.......................  46  70  42  73 /  30  20   5  10
Angel Fire......................  44  75  37  78 /  30  20   0  10
Taos............................  51  83  48  86 /  30  10   0   0
Mora............................  52  81  50  83 /  20  20   0  10
Espanola........................  58  89  58  92 /  30   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  58  83  56  87 /  40  10   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  57  87  58  90 /  30   5   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  90  65  93 /  50   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  92  66  95 /  40   5   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  94  65  96 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  93  65  95 /  40   0   0   0
Belen...........................  63  93  64  97 /  30   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  63  94  63  96 /  40   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  61  93  63  96 /  30   0   0   0
Corrales........................  63  94  64  97 /  40   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  62  93  64  96 /  30   0   0   0
Placitas........................  62  90  62  93 /  40   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  64  93  64  95 /  40   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  65  95  67  99 /  40  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  58  84  58  87 /  40   5   0   0
Tijeras.........................  60  87  60  89 /  40   5   0   0
Edgewood........................  57  87  57  90 /  30   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  89  53  91 /  30   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  55  84  56  86 /  30   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  58  86  59  89 /  30   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  58  86  59  90 /  40   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  64  90  66  94 /  40  20   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  58  82  61  86 /  40  40   5  20
Capulin.........................  56  84  55  82 /  20  30  10  10
Raton...........................  55  88  54  89 /  20  20   5   5
Springer........................  56  89  55  89 /  20  20   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  55  85  53  87 /  20  10   0   5
Clayton.........................  63  92  62  90 /   5  20  10   0
Roy.............................  60  88  59  88 /  20  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  66  96  64  95 /  20  10  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  64  92  63  92 /  20   5   5   0
Tucumcari.......................  67  97  66  96 /  20   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  69  97  67  98 /  10  10  20   0
Portales........................  68  97  67  99 /  10  10  20   0
Fort Sumner.....................  68  96  67  97 /  20  10  10   0
Roswell.........................  72 100  71 104 /  30  20  10   0
Picacho.........................  64  92  66  95 /  30  30   5   5
Elk.............................  60  89  62  93 /  30  40   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44