171
FXUS65 KABQ 161120 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Hot and mainly dry weather will be the rule most areas today.
Isolated and relatively weak showers and thunderstorms will be
most prevalent from the southwest and south central mountains east
out over the plains. The heat continues through the weekend with
only isolated, weak showers and a few thunderstorms expected
during the afternoons and evenings mainly for western and northern
NM. This same pattern continues into early next week as the
monsoon high remains overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Boundary collisions have tapped into some modest instability in
central NM this morning in the wake of a weak backdoor cold front. A
few lightning strikes have been observed, but intensity is trending
down and additional storm development tonight appears unlikely.
Water vapor imagery shows an elongated ridge across the desert
southwest and models suggest that a centroid will develop directly
over central NM this afternoon. This will help temperatures climb a
few degrees from yesterday`s already hot temps. Highs will generally
be around 10 degrees above average, creating heat risk concerns
areawide, but particularly in the middle Rio Grande Valley and
southeast plains where a Heat Advisory is in effect. Record highs
will be threatened in these locations and several others in eastern
NM as well. PWATs will generally be only around 75% of normal, but
several CAMs show storms developing over the high terrain early this
afternoon. Mid-level dry air will be difficult to overcome, but
slightly higher 500-700mb humidity across the southern portion of
the forecast area makes this the favored area for convective
development. Confidence in storms is even lower over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains and eastern plains, but they do initiate on several
hi-res models. Unorganized storms could produce gusty outflow winds
and wetting footprints will generally be small. Most showers should
wind down after sunset, but boundary collisions could help keep a
storm or two around through the late evening.

The centroid of the ridge will nudge northward and intensify a dam
or two, making Saturday another hot and mostly dry day for the CWA.
Highs will be very be close to today`s, although maybe a degree or
two hotter across the northern half of the state. Low-level
southwesterly flow will help to draw deeper moisture into western NM
where isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms is expected. A
few updrafts will try to develop over the peaks along the central NM
chain, but a relatively strong mid-level subsidence inversion should
prevent storms from moving down into the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Monsoon high (a.k.a. "heat dome" and "death ridge" or whatever
other embellished name it`s been called of late), is forecast to
remain centered over eastern NM Saturday night into early next
week. This same doldrum high, albeit stronger than average for
mid to late August, which forms over the Southwest U.S. every
summer, and is responsible for NM`s rainy season, is forecast to
meander over the state during the next week. The monsoon high`s
strength is tied to all of the convection over Mexico and the
tropical EPAC. The monsoon high center remains too far west over
NM for good moisture advection with most moisture sliding up from
the south into AZ. A few weak backdoor boundaries next week result
in slight upticks in afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms, but overall, thunderstorm activity is forecast to
remain below average for mid to late August during the next week.
Heat is forecast to be the main weather concern. Why? A couple of
factors. The associated subsidence inversion (rising air
associated with the tropical thunderstorms to the south hits the
top of the lower atmosphere and has to come down in the form of
sinking air over NM/AZ). This sinking results in a type of mid
level capping (subsidence) inversion that surface heating or
outflow boundaries have to break in order for storms to form.
Elevated heat sources in the form of dark green mountain slopes
get the party started in the form of building thermals from mid to
late morning. When mid level moisture is lacking and there is a
strong subsidence inversion(s) in place around 18K ft MSL, it
becomes very difficult for rising thermals to "make it" if you
will to a point in the convective process that is self sustaining.
ECMWF ENS model indicates that a slight jog of the monsoon high
toward the eastern Great Basin could be in the cards a week out,
allowing low level moisture to move in from the east. Asian-
Pacific jet strength over central Canada looks like it could be
strong enough to force the monsoon high west over eastern UT and
western CO next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 513 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Isolated storms will develop over the high terrain between 18Z and
20Z this afternoon. Storms will struggle to maintain their
strength as they move down in elevation mid to late afternoon.
Gusty outflow winds to 40KT will be the main concern with showers
and storms that develop. Given the isolated coverage, confidence
in impacts at TAF sites was not high enough to include more than
a mention of vicinity showers at KLVS and KTCC. Very hot
temperatures around 10 degrees above average will create density
altitude concerns this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 106 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the end of
next week. Ridging shifts overhead today and remains parked over New
Mexico through at least the middle of next week. This will result in
hot temperatures and isolated storms over the high terrain each
afternoon. Temperatures will hold steady at near record levels today
through the end of the week. Storm chances will gradually trend
higher this weekend into early next week, with wetting rainfall will
generally favoring western NM and the highest peaks of central and
northern NM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  94  62  96  65 /   0   0   0  20
Dulce...........................  89  53  91  52 /   0   0  10  10
Cuba............................  90  61  91  60 /   0   0  10  20
Gallup..........................  92  60  93  57 /   0   5  20  30
El Morro........................  88  60  89  59 /   5  10  30  40
Grants..........................  92  61  92  60 /  10  10  20  30
Quemado.........................  90  61  89  58 /  20  20  40  40
Magdalena.......................  91  66  91  64 /  20  30  20  10
Datil...........................  88  61  88  59 /  30  30  30  20
Reserve.........................  94  62  93  57 /  20  20  40  30
Glenwood........................  99  70  98  65 /  30  20  30  30
Chama...........................  83  53  85  53 /   0   0  10  10
Los Alamos......................  88  66  90  65 /  20   5  20  10
Pecos...........................  89  63  90  62 /  10   5  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  86  56  87  56 /   5   0  10   5
Red River.......................  76  51  78  49 /   5   0  10   5
Angel Fire......................  80  47  82  40 /  10   0  10   5
Taos............................  89  54  91  51 /   5   0   5   5
Mora............................  86  58  87  55 /  20   5  10   5
Espanola........................  95  63  96  64 /   5   0   5  10
Santa Fe........................  90  65  91  65 /   5   0  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  94  64  94  65 /   5   0   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  96  72  96  70 /   0   5  10  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  98  70  98  70 /   0   5   5  20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  70 100  65 /   0   5   0  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  71  99  67 /   0   5   0  20
Belen........................... 100  68 100  62 /   0   5   0  10
Bernalillo...................... 100  69 100  67 /   0   5   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  99  68  99  62 /   0   5   0  10
Corrales........................ 100  70  99  67 /   0   5   0  10
Los Lunas....................... 100  69 100  63 /   0   5   0  10
Placitas........................  96  69  96  67 /   0   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  99  70  99  67 /   0   5   0  10
Socorro......................... 101  70 101  68 /  10  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  90  65  90  62 /   0  10  10  10
Tijeras.........................  93  66  93  59 /   0  10  10  10
Edgewood........................  93  62  93  56 /   5   5  10  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  94  60  95  54 /  10   5   5  10
Clines Corners..................  89  61  90  59 /  20   5  10  10
Mountainair.....................  92  63  92  59 /   5  10  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  92  63  92  60 /  10  10  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  95  68  94  65 /  10  20  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  86  62  86  59 /  30  20  30   5
Capulin.........................  89  58  91  61 /  20  20   5   0
Raton...........................  93  57  95  58 /  20   5   5   0
Springer........................  95  56  96  60 /  20   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  90  58  91  58 /  20  10  10   5
Clayton.........................  96  66  97  69 /  20  20   0   5
Roy.............................  93  62  94  64 /  20  20   0   5
Conchas......................... 101  66 102  68 /  20  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  96  65  99  65 /  20  20   0   5
Tucumcari....................... 100  70 102  68 /  20  20   0   5
Clovis.......................... 101  70 101  70 /  20  20   5   0
Portales........................ 101  70 102  70 /  20  20   5   0
Fort Sumner..................... 100  69 101  68 /  20  20   0   0
Roswell......................... 105  73 104  72 /   5  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  97  67  97  65 /  10  10  10   0
Elk.............................  95  64  93  60 /  10   5  20   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ219-238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...16