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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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810 FXUS65 KABQ 131722 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region again today then move northeast through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is likely with potential for flash flooding from the heavier storms, especially on wildfire burn scars. Drier and hotter weather will return to the entire region beginning Wednesday. Near-record high temperatures are possible by the end of the week and through the weekend. A couple showers and storms cannot be ruled out near the high terrain, but most areas will be dry and very hot. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Weak, nocturnal convection from a southerly direction continues early this morning, as the monsoon high shifts east and a upper- level trough moves slightly closer to NM today. Monsoon high is now forecast to be smack dab over the Red River Valley portion of TX/OK border today. At the same time, a stronger than is typical upper- level trough for this time of year remains over the PACNW through much of the upcoming week. The flow between these two features will continue to draw up moisture from the south today, with showers and storms west of the central mountain chain moving nearly due east around 15 kt while storms east of the central mountains move to the northeast around 15 kt. Precipitable water (PWATs) values increase to between 1.1-1.3" today and with two distinct jet level wind maxima, expect numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon over most mountain ranges, shifting to the east and northeast this afternoon through this evening. Training of storms over the same area is forecast for today. After this fairly typical during August day, the weather scripts completely flips one day later, Wednesday. The same well above average subtropical jet max of ~95 kt over NV/UT that has plagued the Western U.S. for months is again forecast to nose into northwest NM Wednesday. These subtropical westerlies dry out all but the south central mountains and east-central plains Wednesday where low level moisture is able to hold on the longest for isolated showers and thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Any showers and storms lingering over the southern high terrain and eastern plains early Wednesday evening will dissipate quickly after sunset. A strong monsoon high will develop eastward into the area starting Thursday. There may be just enough lingering moisture and instability along the leading edge of the upper high for a few showers and storms to recycle over the central and southern high terrain. However, most activity will be short-lived with gusty winds. The H5 high will build to near 596dm over central NM by Friday. A couple more short-lived showers and storms are possible near the high terrain but confidence is low. H5 pressure heights will increase closer to 598dm Saturday and Sunday with a slight jog eastward toward west TX. This will allow a better plume of monsoon moisture to shift northward into AZ and far western NM. A slight uptick in coverage is possible but most areas will stay dry. Otherwise, intensifying heat will be the main story with near-record temps over parts of the region. The latest NAEFS, GEFS, and ENS indicate H5 and T7 stdev values near +2.5 over the weekend. M-climate return intervals shift outside the forecast database on the ENS by early next week. Heat Advisories may be issued for parts of the area for several consecutive days into early next week if models remain consistent. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in sct/num showers and storms this afternoon/evening. Erratic wind gusts to 35-40kts will be common in/near storms this afternoon, with brief heavy downpours and small hail likely. KSAF, KABQ/KAEG and KLVS are the terminals most likely to be impacted by storms this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the next week. Temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday through next weekend. A couple of mainly dry days are forecast Wednesday and Thursday before moisture starts creeping back in to the southwest and south central mountains on Friday. Additionally, WFO ABQ will be going back to issuing one Fire Weather Forecast (FWF) daily. Once fuels dry out some and prescribed burning ramps up in mid to late fall, two FWFs per day will return. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 85 61 87 59 / 40 40 0 0 Dulce........................... 83 48 83 44 / 70 40 10 0 Cuba............................ 82 55 83 55 / 80 40 5 0 Gallup.......................... 84 54 85 52 / 50 30 0 0 El Morro........................ 80 55 81 54 / 80 40 10 0 Grants.......................... 83 56 85 56 / 80 30 10 0 Quemado......................... 81 55 82 54 / 90 40 20 0 Magdalena....................... 84 60 85 61 / 80 40 10 0 Datil........................... 81 54 82 55 / 90 30 20 0 Reserve......................... 87 54 88 55 / 80 40 10 0 Glenwood........................ 92 64 94 66 / 70 30 20 0 Chama........................... 77 47 77 46 / 80 40 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 82 59 81 59 / 80 30 10 0 Pecos........................... 83 57 83 57 / 70 30 10 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 80 50 80 49 / 70 30 20 5 Red River....................... 72 46 70 45 / 70 30 20 5 Angel Fire...................... 74 43 75 40 / 70 30 20 0 Taos............................ 82 52 83 49 / 50 30 10 0 Mora............................ 81 51 81 51 / 70 20 20 0 Espanola........................ 90 58 89 57 / 60 30 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 85 59 83 59 / 70 40 10 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 87 58 / 60 30 5 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 66 90 67 / 70 50 5 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 65 93 65 / 50 40 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 64 94 64 / 40 40 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 65 93 66 / 50 40 0 0 Belen........................... 93 62 93 62 / 40 30 5 0 Bernalillo...................... 91 64 94 63 / 50 40 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 91 62 93 62 / 40 30 0 0 Corrales........................ 91 65 94 64 / 50 40 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 91 63 93 63 / 40 30 0 0 Placitas........................ 88 62 90 63 / 50 40 5 0 Rio Rancho...................... 89 65 93 64 / 50 40 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 65 95 67 / 40 40 10 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 57 84 59 / 60 40 5 0 Tijeras......................... 87 60 87 61 / 70 40 5 0 Edgewood........................ 87 55 87 56 / 60 30 5 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 87 52 88 53 / 50 30 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 82 55 84 55 / 50 30 5 0 Mountainair..................... 86 57 86 58 / 50 30 5 0 Gran Quivira.................... 87 57 86 57 / 50 40 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 91 64 90 65 / 50 40 20 5 Ruidoso......................... 84 58 82 60 / 70 40 40 5 Capulin......................... 83 55 82 54 / 30 20 30 10 Raton........................... 87 55 87 54 / 40 20 20 5 Springer........................ 88 55 89 55 / 40 20 20 0 Las Vegas....................... 84 54 85 53 / 50 20 10 0 Clayton......................... 92 64 90 62 / 5 5 20 10 Roy............................. 88 60 88 59 / 30 20 10 5 Conchas......................... 95 66 95 64 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 93 63 92 62 / 20 20 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 99 67 95 64 / 5 20 5 5 Clovis.......................... 96 69 98 68 / 5 10 10 20 Portales........................ 97 70 98 68 / 5 10 10 20 Fort Sumner..................... 97 67 95 66 / 10 20 10 10 Roswell......................... 99 72 100 72 / 10 30 20 10 Picacho......................... 94 64 92 65 / 40 30 30 5 Elk............................. 92 60 90 62 / 50 30 40 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...11