810
FXUS65 KABQ 131722 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1122 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region again today
then move northeast through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is
likely with potential for flash flooding from the heavier storms,
especially on wildfire burn scars. Drier and hotter weather will
return to the entire region beginning Wednesday. Near-record high
temperatures are possible by the end of the week and through the
weekend. A couple showers and storms cannot be ruled out near the
high terrain, but most areas will be dry and very hot.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Weak, nocturnal convection from a southerly direction continues
early this morning, as the monsoon high shifts east and a upper-
level trough moves slightly closer to NM today. Monsoon high is now
forecast to be smack dab over the Red River Valley portion of TX/OK
border today. At the same time, a stronger than is typical upper-
level trough for this time of year remains over the PACNW through
much of the upcoming week. The flow between these two features will
continue to draw up moisture from the south today, with showers and
storms west of the central mountain chain moving nearly due east
around 15 kt while storms east of the central mountains move to the
northeast around 15 kt. Precipitable water (PWATs) values increase
to between 1.1-1.3" today and with two distinct jet level wind
maxima, expect numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage this
afternoon over most mountain ranges, shifting to the east and
northeast this afternoon through this evening. Training of storms
over the same area is forecast for today. After this fairly typical
during August day, the weather scripts completely flips one day
later, Wednesday. The same well above average subtropical jet max of
~95 kt over NV/UT that has plagued the Western U.S. for months is
again forecast to nose into northwest NM Wednesday. These
subtropical westerlies dry out all but the south central mountains
and east-central plains Wednesday where low level moisture is able
to hold on the longest for isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Any showers and storms lingering over the southern high terrain and
eastern plains early Wednesday evening will dissipate quickly after
sunset. A strong monsoon high will develop eastward into the area
starting Thursday. There may be just enough lingering moisture and
instability along the leading edge of the upper high for a few
showers and storms to recycle over the central and southern high
terrain. However, most activity will be short-lived with gusty
winds. The H5 high will build to near 596dm over central NM by
Friday. A couple more short-lived showers and storms are possible
near the high terrain but confidence is low. H5 pressure heights
will increase closer to 598dm Saturday and Sunday with a slight
jog eastward toward west TX. This will allow a better plume of
monsoon moisture to shift northward into AZ and far western NM.
A slight uptick in coverage is possible but most areas will stay
dry. Otherwise, intensifying heat will be the main story with
near-record temps over parts of the region. The latest NAEFS,
GEFS, and ENS indicate H5 and T7 stdev values near +2.5 over the
weekend. M-climate return intervals shift outside the forecast
database on the ENS by early next week. Heat Advisories may be
issued for parts of the area for several consecutive days into
early next week if models remain consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for
short-lived MVFR conditions in sct/num showers and storms this
afternoon/evening. Erratic wind gusts to 35-40kts will be common
in/near storms this afternoon, with brief heavy downpours and
small hail likely. KSAF, KABQ/KAEG and KLVS are the terminals most
likely to be impacted by storms this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the next
week. Temperatures are forecast to increase Wednesday through next
weekend. A couple of mainly dry days are forecast Wednesday and
Thursday before moisture starts creeping back in to the southwest
and south central mountains on Friday.

Additionally, WFO ABQ will be going back to issuing one Fire Weather
Forecast (FWF) daily. Once fuels dry out some and prescribed burning
ramps up in mid to late fall, two FWFs per day will return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  61  87  59 /  40  40   0   0
Dulce...........................  83  48  83  44 /  70  40  10   0
Cuba............................  82  55  83  55 /  80  40   5   0
Gallup..........................  84  54  85  52 /  50  30   0   0
El Morro........................  80  55  81  54 /  80  40  10   0
Grants..........................  83  56  85  56 /  80  30  10   0
Quemado.........................  81  55  82  54 /  90  40  20   0
Magdalena.......................  84  60  85  61 /  80  40  10   0
Datil...........................  81  54  82  55 /  90  30  20   0
Reserve.........................  87  54  88  55 /  80  40  10   0
Glenwood........................  92  64  94  66 /  70  30  20   0
Chama...........................  77  47  77  46 /  80  40  10   0
Los Alamos......................  82  59  81  59 /  80  30  10   0
Pecos...........................  83  57  83  57 /  70  30  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  80  50  80  49 /  70  30  20   5
Red River.......................  72  46  70  45 /  70  30  20   5
Angel Fire......................  74  43  75  40 /  70  30  20   0
Taos............................  82  52  83  49 /  50  30  10   0
Mora............................  81  51  81  51 /  70  20  20   0
Espanola........................  90  58  89  57 /  60  30   5   0
Santa Fe........................  85  59  83  59 /  70  40  10   0
Santa Fe Airport................  87  58  87  58 /  60  30   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  88  66  90  67 /  70  50   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  65  93  65 /  50  40   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  64  94  64 /  40  40   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  65  93  66 /  50  40   0   0
Belen...........................  93  62  93  62 /  40  30   5   0
Bernalillo......................  91  64  94  63 /  50  40   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  91  62  93  62 /  40  30   0   0
Corrales........................  91  65  94  64 /  50  40   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  91  63  93  63 /  40  30   0   0
Placitas........................  88  62  90  63 /  50  40   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  89  65  93  64 /  50  40   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  65  95  67 /  40  40  10   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  57  84  59 /  60  40   5   0
Tijeras.........................  87  60  87  61 /  70  40   5   0
Edgewood........................  87  55  87  56 /  60  30   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  52  88  53 /  50  30   5   0
Clines Corners..................  82  55  84  55 /  50  30   5   0
Mountainair.....................  86  57  86  58 /  50  30   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  87  57  86  57 /  50  40   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  91  64  90  65 /  50  40  20   5
Ruidoso.........................  84  58  82  60 /  70  40  40   5
Capulin.........................  83  55  82  54 /  30  20  30  10
Raton...........................  87  55  87  54 /  40  20  20   5
Springer........................  88  55  89  55 /  40  20  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  84  54  85  53 /  50  20  10   0
Clayton.........................  92  64  90  62 /   5   5  20  10
Roy.............................  88  60  88  59 /  30  20  10   5
Conchas.........................  95  66  95  64 /  20  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  93  63  92  62 /  20  20   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  99  67  95  64 /   5  20   5   5
Clovis..........................  96  69  98  68 /   5  10  10  20
Portales........................  97  70  98  68 /   5  10  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  97  67  95  66 /  10  20  10  10
Roswell.........................  99  72 100  72 /  10  30  20  10
Picacho.........................  94  64  92  65 /  40  30  30   5
Elk.............................  92  60  90  62 /  50  30  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11