Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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473 FXUS65 KABQ 132038 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 238 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening across western and central New Mexico. Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible. Dry air will punch into the state on Wednesday, limiting the potential for afternoon thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, though storms may still develop around Ruidoso on Wednesday. Isolated storms will be possible Friday through the weekend, but the heat will remain. Triple digit heat will be likely for much of the eastern plains and portions of the Rio Grande Valley. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have erupted across much of western and central NM this afternoon as the weakness that was over AZ yesterday shifts eastward across NM. Updrafts have been struggling to maintain themselves, and storm motion is generally strong enough to have limited excessive rainfall at any one location so far. However, training cells may lead to flash flooding concerns, like that over the northern portion of the Hermit`s Peak Calf Canyon burn scar, through the evening. The aforementioned weakness/trough axis will continue to track eastward through Wednesday morning. Dry air behind the trough axis will push into NM in the afternoon allowing the plume of moisture to set up over eastern NM and west TX. This will limit precipitation chances across the west, but the best moisture will line up from Lincoln County northeastward to Quay County. A few storms could develop along this moisture gradient, to include areas around Ruidoso, in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible. Storm motions will be toward the east or southeast around 5-10 mph. Any storms that develop should diminish around sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 On Thursday, the western centroid of the high will shift back toward the east with the high elongated from west of the northern Baja to central NM. Dry air aloft will remain in place, allowing for few storms to develop in the afternoon. If storms form, they will favor the southern high terrain, but few storms are expected overall. PWATs will drop to near 0.5-0.6 inches. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, except across far northeast NM due to a weak front sliding down the plains. On Friday, a 596dam high will be squarely centered over NM. Temperatures will continue to inch upward in the absence of much convection. There may be a isolated storms across the southwest and south central mountains once again, but PWATs only inch slightly upward. Through the weekend and into Monday, the upper high will shift slightly eastward and strength to 597-599dam. The shift eastward will allow a traditional monsoon plume of moisture will stand up over eastern AZ and far western NM. Storm coverage will be relatively minimal elsewhere across NM though can`t rule out a few storms over the central mountain chain. The bigger story will be the heat, with a few heat advisories not out of the question. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 AM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for short-lived MVFR conditions in sct/num showers and storms this afternoon/evening. Erratic wind gusts to 35-40kts will be common in/near storms this afternoon, with brief heavy downpours and small hail likely. KSAF, KABQ/KAEG and KLVS are the terminals most likely to be impacted by storms this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening with wetting rains likely and flash flooding will be possible. Dry air will punch into NM from the west on Wednesday, which will limit precip chances through the rest of the week. Daytime RH will also fall, with near 15% RH possible Friday through the weekend. Winds will remain rather light, though strong outflows will be possible with any isolated thunderstorms that develop. High temperatures will rise a bit each day for the rest of the week as the upper high moves back over NM. Above normal temperatures will be the rule Thursday through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 59 89 57 93 / 40 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 51 83 46 88 / 40 10 0 0 Cuba............................ 55 83 55 88 / 40 5 0 0 Gallup.......................... 53 86 50 90 / 30 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 82 51 87 / 40 10 0 0 Grants.......................... 54 86 51 91 / 30 10 0 0 Quemado......................... 54 83 53 87 / 40 20 0 5 Magdalena....................... 59 85 60 89 / 40 10 0 0 Datil........................... 53 82 54 87 / 30 20 0 5 Reserve......................... 54 88 56 92 / 40 10 0 5 Glenwood........................ 62 93 64 96 / 30 20 0 5 Chama........................... 48 77 46 81 / 40 10 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 81 60 85 / 30 10 0 5 Pecos........................... 55 83 56 86 / 30 10 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 51 79 48 82 / 30 20 5 5 Red River....................... 46 70 42 73 / 30 20 5 10 Angel Fire...................... 44 75 37 78 / 30 20 0 10 Taos............................ 51 83 48 86 / 30 10 0 0 Mora............................ 52 81 50 83 / 20 20 0 10 Espanola........................ 58 89 58 92 / 30 5 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 58 83 56 87 / 40 10 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 87 58 90 / 30 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 64 90 65 93 / 50 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 92 66 95 / 40 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 94 65 96 / 40 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 93 65 95 / 40 0 0 0 Belen........................... 63 93 64 97 / 30 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 63 94 63 96 / 40 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 61 93 63 96 / 30 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 63 94 64 97 / 40 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 62 93 64 96 / 30 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 62 90 62 93 / 40 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 64 93 64 95 / 40 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 65 95 67 99 / 40 10 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 84 58 87 / 40 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 60 87 60 89 / 40 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 57 87 57 90 / 30 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 89 53 91 / 30 5 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 84 56 86 / 30 5 0 0 Mountainair..................... 58 86 59 89 / 30 5 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 58 86 59 90 / 40 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 64 90 66 94 / 40 20 5 5 Ruidoso......................... 58 82 61 86 / 40 40 5 20 Capulin......................... 56 84 55 82 / 20 30 10 10 Raton........................... 55 88 54 89 / 20 20 5 5 Springer........................ 56 89 55 89 / 20 20 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 55 85 53 87 / 20 10 0 5 Clayton......................... 63 92 62 90 / 5 20 10 0 Roy............................. 60 88 59 88 / 20 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 66 96 64 95 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 92 63 92 / 20 5 5 0 Tucumcari....................... 67 97 66 96 / 20 5 5 0 Clovis.......................... 69 97 67 98 / 10 10 20 0 Portales........................ 68 97 67 99 / 10 10 20 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 96 67 97 / 20 10 10 0 Roswell......................... 72 100 71 104 / 30 20 10 0 Picacho......................... 64 92 66 95 / 30 30 5 5 Elk............................. 60 89 62 93 / 30 40 5 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ214-215-226. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...11