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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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767 FXUS65 KABQ 141718 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1118 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 An intense heat dome will build over the region through the end of the week and into early next week. Temperatures will soar to near-record levels in many areas. The hottest weather is likely Saturday through Tuesday with widespread 90s and low 100s. A few showers and thunderstorms are still possible around the higher terrain but most areas will likely remain dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Much drier air on an exceptionally strong 98 kt subtropical jet over the Great Basin will scour out most low level monsoon moisture from the forecast area today. The south central mountains and east central and southeast plains are the predictable areas where moisture remains for today, but moisture and stability will be under assault from the much drier and warmer air aloft advecting in from the north and northwest. A stronger, subtropical or otherwise, jet stream can also lead result in a stronger subsidence inversion or sinking air in the mid level of the atmosphere. Today is forecast to warm a degree or two over yesterday`s highs in most places with several degrees more warming forecast on Thursday. With regard to precipitation Thursday, just a few showers or brief storms are possible for the south central mountains in and near Ruidoso while the remainder of the forecast area remains dry and relatively hot for mid August. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 A 597dm H5 high center will focus near KABQ Friday. A few showers and storms are still possible near the high terrain but most areas will be dry. Any storms will be brief and very slow-moving. The main story will be near-record heat building over the region. The high center will drift east Saturday, allowing for a slight uptick in storm coverage over western NM. A western expansion of the high will take place Sunday and shunt most activity west of the Cont Divide. Max temps will remain near record levels. Models are in good agreement with a 598-600dm high sprawling across the region by Monday and Tuesday. Record high temps are possible in several areas. The risk for heat-related impacts will be moderate to high over the entire area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period. Much lower coverage of convection expected across northern and western NM relative to the past couple of days as drier air spreads east across the region. KTCC and KROW may be impacted by storms later this afternoon/evening, with very low probabilities for short-lived MVFR conditions. Strong/erratic wind gusts are the most likely impact with storms across east central/southeast NM this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024 No critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the next week. Temperatures are forecast to increase slightly today through the weekend. Dry weather continues most areas through Friday with monsoon moisture seeping back into western NM over the weekend. High temperatures will remain hotter than average for mid to late August. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 45 87 46 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 84 55 87 57 / 5 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 86 52 89 54 / 5 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 81 55 86 57 / 10 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 85 56 90 59 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 83 55 88 57 / 10 0 10 5 Magdalena....................... 85 62 89 64 / 10 5 0 0 Datil........................... 83 55 87 57 / 20 5 5 0 Reserve......................... 89 54 93 57 / 20 5 10 0 Glenwood........................ 94 63 97 68 / 20 10 5 0 Chama........................... 78 47 81 49 / 20 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 81 60 85 62 / 10 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 83 58 86 59 / 10 0 5 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 79 49 82 52 / 10 5 5 5 Red River....................... 72 46 74 47 / 20 5 5 5 Angel Fire...................... 75 40 77 41 / 10 0 5 0 Taos............................ 83 49 86 52 / 5 0 0 0 Mora............................ 81 51 83 52 / 10 0 5 5 Espanola........................ 89 57 92 60 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 84 60 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 58 90 61 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 91 65 94 68 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 93 66 95 69 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 95 62 97 66 / 5 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 94 65 96 67 / 5 0 0 0 Belen........................... 93 62 97 63 / 5 5 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 95 62 97 66 / 5 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 94 60 96 62 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 95 64 97 67 / 5 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 94 62 96 64 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 90 62 93 65 / 5 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 93 64 96 67 / 5 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 96 67 99 68 / 10 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 84 60 87 60 / 5 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 87 62 90 62 / 5 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 87 56 90 56 / 5 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 53 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 83 55 86 56 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 86 58 90 58 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 86 59 89 59 / 10 5 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 90 66 94 66 / 20 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 81 60 86 60 / 50 10 10 0 Capulin......................... 82 55 82 56 / 20 10 10 5 Raton........................... 87 55 89 55 / 20 5 5 5 Springer........................ 89 56 89 56 / 10 5 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 85 53 87 54 / 10 0 5 5 Clayton......................... 91 63 88 62 / 10 20 0 5 Roy............................. 88 59 88 59 / 10 10 5 5 Conchas......................... 95 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 5 Santa Rosa...................... 91 61 92 63 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 97 65 94 65 / 5 10 0 0 Clovis.......................... 96 68 99 68 / 30 20 5 5 Portales........................ 97 68 99 68 / 30 20 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 95 65 97 66 / 10 10 0 0 Roswell......................... 100 71 104 72 / 20 10 0 0 Picacho......................... 91 65 96 65 / 40 10 5 0 Elk............................. 89 62 94 61 / 50 10 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...11