609
FXUS65 KABQ 141122
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

An intense heat dome will build over the region through the end
of the week and into early next week. Temperatures will soar to
near-record levels in many areas. The hottest weather is likely
Saturday through Tuesday with widespread 90s and low 100s. A few
showers and thunderstorms are still possible around the higher
terrain but most areas will likely remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Much drier air on an exceptionally strong 98 kt subtropical jet
over the Great Basin will scour out most low level monsoon moisture
from the forecast area today. The south central mountains and east
central and southeast plains are the predictable areas where
moisture remains for today, but moisture and stability will be under
assault from the much drier and warmer air aloft advecting in from
the north and northwest. A stronger, subtropical or otherwise, jet
stream can also lead result in a stronger subsidence inversion or
sinking air in the mid level of the atmosphere. Today is forecast to
warm a degree or two over yesterday`s highs in most places with
several degrees more warming forecast on Thursday. With regard to
precipitation Thursday, just a few showers or brief storms are
possible for the south central mountains in and near Ruidoso while
the remainder of the forecast area remains dry and relatively hot
for mid August.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

A 597dm H5 high center will focus near KABQ Friday. A few showers
and storms are still possible near the high terrain but most areas
will be dry. Any storms will be brief and very slow-moving. The
main story will be near-record heat building over the region. The
high center will drift east Saturday, allowing for a slight uptick
in storm coverage over western NM. A western expansion of the high
will take place Sunday and shunt most activity west of the Cont
Divide. Max temps will remain near record levels. Models are in
good agreement with a 598-600dm high sprawling across the region
by Monday and Tuesday. Record high temps are possible in several
areas. The risk for heat-related impacts will be moderate to high
over the entire area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 447 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Much drier air aloft will push in over the forecast area from the
northwest today with significantly fewer showers and thunderstorms
compared to much of the past week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be relatively weak and confined to the south
central and southwest mountains Wednesday afternoon with mainly
dry conditions over the mountains west of the Rio Grande and north
of I-25.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

No critical fire weather conditions are forecast during the next
week. Temperatures are forecast to increase slightly today through
the weekend. Dry weather continues most areas through Friday with
monsoon moisture seeping back into western NM over the weekend. High
temperatures will remain hotter than average for mid to late
August.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  59  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  45  87  46 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  84  55  87  57 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  86  52  89  54 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  81  55  86  57 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  85  56  90  59 /  10   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  83  55  88  57 /  10   0  10   5
Magdalena.......................  85  62  89  64 /  10   5   0   0
Datil...........................  83  55  87  57 /  20   5   5   0
Reserve.........................  89  54  93  57 /  20   5  10   0
Glenwood........................  94  63  97  68 /  20  10   5   0
Chama...........................  78  47  81  49 /  20   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  81  60  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  83  58  86  59 /  10   0   5   5
Cerro/Questa....................  79  49  82  52 /  10   5   5   5
Red River.......................  72  46  74  47 /  20   5   5   5
Angel Fire......................  75  40  77  41 /  10   0   5   0
Taos............................  83  49  86  52 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  81  51  83  52 /  10   0   5   5
Espanola........................  89  57  92  60 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  84  60  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  87  58  90  61 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  65  94  68 /  10   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  66  95  69 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  62  97  66 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  65  96  67 /   5   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  62  97  63 /   5   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  95  62  97  66 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  94  60  96  62 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  95  64  97  67 /   5   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  94  62  96  64 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  90  62  93  65 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  93  64  96  67 /   5   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  67  99  68 /  10   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  84  60  87  60 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  87  62  90  62 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  87  56  90  56 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  88  53  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  83  55  86  56 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  86  58  90  58 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  86  59  89  59 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  90  66  94  66 /  20  10   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  81  60  86  60 /  50  10  10   0
Capulin.........................  82  55  82  56 /  20  10  10   5
Raton...........................  87  55  89  55 /  20   5   5   5
Springer........................  89  56  89  56 /  10   5   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  85  53  87  54 /  10   0   5   5
Clayton.........................  91  63  88  62 /  10  20   0   5
Roy.............................  88  59  88  59 /  10  10   5   5
Conchas.........................  95  63  95  64 /  10  10   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  91  61  92  63 /   5   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  97  65  94  65 /   5  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  96  68  99  68 /  30  20   5   5
Portales........................  97  68  99  68 /  30  20   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  95  65  97  66 /  10  10   0   0
Roswell......................... 100  71 104  72 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  91  65  96  65 /  40  10   5   0
Elk.............................  89  62  94  61 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33