827
FXUS65 KABQ 122002
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

An overall decrease in thunderstorm coverage is expected through the
weekend. Temperatures will trend hotter with many lower elevation
areas in the 90s to low 100s. Any storms that do form will focus
over the northern and western high terrain with brief rain, gusty
winds, and lightning strikes. Moisture will increase over NM again
next week with greater coverage of thunderstorms beginning Monday.
The risk for locally heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding
will increase each day, especially over wildfire burn scars. High
temperatures will decrease closer to normal through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Monsoon high is currently anchored over south central UT. Clockwise
circulation around the high continues to entrain a good deal of very
dry air aloft from the Midwest, resulting in a gradual downtrend in
precipitable water (PWAT) values. 0.79" of water was calculated from
this morning`s weather balloon release at WFO ABQ. This is down from
0.82" yesterday evening and 0.83" yesterday morning. Locally heavy
rainfall potential remains, but wetting footprints are much smaller
in area and storms are more garden variety with the lack of large
scale forcing. Afterall, this is the monsoon high when large scale
forcing becomes harder to come by. Models continue to bring more mid
level dry air clockwise around the high center Saturday, resulting
in a continued slight downtick in shower and thunderstorm coverage
and intensity. Mainly isolated showers and storms will favor the
northern and western mountains Saturday afternoon with storm motion
turning slightly more westerly between 5 and 10 mph. A few showers
and storms continue across the northern third of the state Saturday
evening. Most convection, however, will likely be over and done with
a couple of hours after sunset. Saturday night`s low will be rather
mild as the monsoon high shifts east over CO, heights rise and the
flow aloft becomes dry easterly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The 598dm H5 high will be centered near southwestern CO Sunday.
Meager moisture in place over the region with deep mixing into
very warm 700-500mb layer temps will lead to only isolated storms
with gusty downburst winds possible. Any storms that do form will
be confined to the northern and western high terrain before moving
erratically southwest into nearby highlands of northwest NM.
Heavy rainfall footprints are likely to be small. Max temps in
lower elevation areas will reach into the upper 90s and low 100s.
A Heat Advisory may be needed for the ABQ metro Sunday.

By Monday, the H5 high center is expected to weaken and elongate
across the Four Corners region while a weak inverted trough slides
westward from TX. This wave forces a 40-50kt speed max into east-
central NM which enhances ascent for showers and storms over the
northern and western high terrain. Deep moisture is still limited
with PWATs near normal and inverted-V profiles are still present
on bufr soundings. While coverage is expected to increase, the
risk for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding may
still be confined to the high terrain and burn scars. Storms from
Monday afternoon will help to moisten the mid levels with cloud
cover lingering over central and western NM thru Monday night.

A moist surface boundary is then expected to move southwest into
eastern NM Monday night which will assist with deepening moisture
across the region Tuesday. The H5 ridge will drift westward and
continue to weaken to near 594dm over northeast AZ. This will
allow for a north/south steering flow with locally heavy rainfall
possible just about anywhere. A much stronger surface boundary is
expected to slide into eastern NM Tuesday night in the wake of an
upper level shortwave moving off the Front Range. This additional
moisture brings PWATs above normal areawide. The risk for flash
flooding will be higher Wednesday thru Friday with north/south
steering flow still in place over the region. Extended guidance
has been consistent with this pattern so confidence is already
moderate on daily Flash Flood Watch issuances during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A slight downtick in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected
today compared to yesterday, with mainly isolated thunderstorms
over western, north central, and central areas this afternoon
through early evening. Storm motion is toward the southwest around
10 kt. Drier air continues to work in around the monsoon high
centered over southern UT through the day, so most storms will
struggle to produce longer lived heavy rain. A few stronger cells
will be capable of producing brief, localized, and erratic wind
gusts over 40 KT, mainly over the northwest half of NM while the
southeast half remains dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Monsoon high anchored over southern UT today is forecast to shift
east over CO Saturday night. Dry air aloft will continue to be
entrained into the monsoon high circulation tonight and Saturday,
resulting in slight downticks in thunderstorm coverage and intensity
each day through Monday. By Tuesday, clockwise circulation around a
monsoon high that is now forecast to be in a southwest to northeast
orientation from northeast AZ northeastward to eastern CO and
western KS, taps low level Gulf moisture in the form of a backdoor
cold front. It`s this front that brings the return of low level
moisture and a marked uptrend in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Thursday. Long range models continue to keep a stronger than
average monsoon high centered over the eastern Great Basin late next
week into next weekend. This results in low level moisture moving in
from eastern NM with afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring
eastern, central, and southern portions of the state Friday through
next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  98  64  98 /  10   5  20   5
Dulce...........................  50  95  50  95 /  10  30  30  30
Cuba............................  57  91  57  91 /  30  30  40  20
Gallup..........................  55  94  54  94 /  20  30  40  30
El Morro........................  57  87  57  89 /  40  40  60  40
Grants..........................  58  91  58  92 /  30  30  50  30
Quemado.........................  57  90  58  90 /  50  50  60  60
Magdalena.......................  63  90  64  92 /  10  20  20  30
Datil...........................  57  88  59  89 /  30  40  30  40
Reserve.........................  52  94  55  95 /  40  60  50  70
Glenwood........................  64  97  66  99 /  20  50  40  60
Chama...........................  50  88  51  88 /  10  40  30  40
Los Alamos......................  63  88  63  90 /  20  40  30  30
Pecos...........................  58  88  59  89 /  20  30  20  30
Cerro/Questa....................  46  88  47  89 /  20  40  20  40
Red River.......................  48  80  49  80 /  20  40  20  40
Angel Fire......................  35  82  37  83 /   5  40  20  30
Taos............................  51  91  53  92 /  10  30  20  30
Mora............................  52  86  53  88 /  10  30  20  20
Espanola........................  60  96  61  97 /  20  20  30  20
Santa Fe........................  62  89  63  90 /  20  30  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  60  92  62  95 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  95  69  97 /  30  10  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  97  69  99 /  30   5  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  64  99  66 101 /  20   0  20   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  98  68  99 /  20   5  20   5
Belen...........................  64  98  64  99 /  10   0  20   5
Bernalillo......................  66  98  67 100 /  20  10  30  10
Bosque Farms....................  63  98  64 100 /  20   0  20   5
Corrales........................  66  98  67 101 /  20   5  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  65  98  66 100 /  20   0  20   5
Placitas........................  65  94  66  96 /  20  10  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  67  98  68 100 /  20   5  20  10
Socorro.........................  67  99  67 102 /  10   5  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
Tijeras.........................  59  92  63  95 /  30  10  20  20
Edgewood........................  55  92  58  95 /  20  10  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  93  56  94 /  30   5  10  10
Clines Corners..................  57  88  58  90 /  20   5  10  10
Mountainair.....................  58  90  59  92 /  20   5  10  10
Gran Quivira....................  58  90  58  91 /  20   5  10  10
Carrizozo.......................  63  92  64  94 /   0   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  83  56  87 /   0   5   0  20
Capulin.........................  58  88  59  90 /  20  10   0   5
Raton...........................  56  93  58  94 /   5  10   0   5
Springer........................  57  93  58  95 /  10  10   5  10
Las Vegas.......................  55  88  56  89 /  10  20  10  10
Clayton.........................  66  95  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  62  90  62  92 /  10   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  66  98  66  99 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  63  94  63  94 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  66  97  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  66  96  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  67  96  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  66  97  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  99  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  63  93  62  94 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  58  90  58  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...33