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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
926 FXUS65 KVEF 061529 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 829 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to climb going into the weekend and start of next week as numerous climate sites face high probabilities of breaking daily as well as all-time temperature records. Oppressive heat is expected to continue through at least midweek. && .UPDATE...Excessive heat continues today, with warnings expanding into Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties, and advisories going into effect for the Spring, Sheep, and White Mountains. This means our entire CWA (minus the Sierra) will be under some form of heat headline through Wednesday. Daily records will be threatened at many locations during this time, with all-time records in jeopardy at Las Vegas and Barstow. The brutal heat looks likely to continue through the work week, but uncertainty surrounding monsoonal moisture grows by next weekend. Should it return, we could see slight temperature relief. If it remains confined to southern Arizona, excessive heat will persist. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Friday. Yesterday, 5 daily heat records were broken or tied across the region. Death Valley, Needles, and Kingman set high temperature records and Barstow-Daggett and Desert Rock set warm low temperature records. Records will continue to fall through the weekend and start of next week as a near-600 decameter 500 mb high pressure system will continue to move inland, ultimately placing the center of the high directly over southern Nevada late-weekend into early next week. Daily records can be found in the CLIMATE section below. This heat is dangerous and prolonged. Major (Level 3) and Extreme (Level 4) HeatRisk will continue to spread across the region over the next few days - including spreading northward to include much of the southern Great Basin and higher elevations of the Mojave Desert. As such, Heat Advisories for the White Mountains of Inyo County and the Spring and Sheep Mountains of Clark County go into effect today as well as an Excessive Heat Warning for Lincoln County and northern Mohave County. All heat-related headlines will continue through Wednesday. After Wednesday, the forecast remains uncertain. The position of the high will determine the amount (if any) of monsoonal moisture that moves into the region. If the aforementioned area of high pressure moves eastward enough, monsoonal moisture will wrap northward into the Desert Southwest from northern Mexico. How much moisture will determine if excessive temperatures continue into next weekend or not. We will continue to assess the upcoming synoptic pattern through the week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Variable winds favoring a northeast direction will occur through 21z with speeds around 7 knots or less. These northeast winds will become more variable after 21z with speeds 7 knots or less through the remainder of the afternoon. Southwest winds will redevelop this evening after 04z and continue through much of the overnight period. Dangerous heat continues again today with temperatures over 100 degrees expected 16Z through 06Z. The forecasted high temperature today is 114 degrees which is forecast to occur between 22z-02z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns today with most areas seeing wind speeds less than 10 knots. Extreme temperatures will occur again this afternoon with most TAF sites seeing highs between 112-119 degrees, the exception will be KBIH where highs will be between 108-110 degrees. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 115(2007)* 116(2017)* 114(2021)* 116(2021)* Bishop 105(2021)* 107(2021)* 109(2021)* 108(2021)* Needles 120(1922)* 122(2017) 120(2017)* 120(2021)* Daggett 115(2007)* 116(1989)* 114(2021)* 113(2021)* Kingman 108(2017)* 112(2017) 108(2017)* 111(2021)* Desert Rock 111(2007)* 111(2017)* 108(2017)* 111(2021)* Death Valley 127(2007)* 129(2007)* 128(1913)* 130(2021)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 MON, JUL 8 TUE, JUL 9 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 90(1957)* 93(2018) 92(2017)* 93(2021) Bishop 67(1985) 72(2014) 70(1991)* 72(1975) Needles 97(1903) 95(1942) 95(2018) 95(2021) Daggett 83(2007)* 80(2018)* 84(2021)* 85(2017)* Kingman 79(1981) 80(1917) 84(2014) 82(2017)* Desert Rock 83(1992) 82(1981) 81(2021) 86(1985) Death Valley 99(2013)* 101(2021) 105(1921) 104(2021) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Woods DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter