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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
800 FXUS65 KVEF 050220 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 720 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will persist into next week as a record breaking heatwave persists over the region. Hottest temperatures are expected Sunday through Wednesday when numerous long standing high temperature records may be challenged or broken. && .UPDATE...There was one climate station, Bishop CA that tied their record high today at 107 degrees. Otherwise, with steep mid-level lapse rates it didn`t take much moisture to generate some cumulus over the higher terrain today, probably see similar development over the southern Sierra tomorrow. There has been several new fire starts today, the largest just north of Kingman at an est. 831 acres is now 100% contained. Finally, we have our first named tropical cyclone of the season in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Aletta. NHC forecasts Aletta to weaken quickly and dissipate well west of mainland Mexico Saturday. Center of the ridge still positioned over California late this afternoon. Center is forecast to remain to our northwest tomorrow before finally moving overhead, and remaining overhead Sunday through the middle of next week for the period of most intense heat. Lastly, everyone enjoy the rest of the 4th of July safely. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1202 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .DISCUSSION...through next week. Dangerously hot temperatures remain the focus of the forecast as a record breaking heatwave unfolds across much of the Western US. Temperatures today should closely mirror observed values yesterday which generally were in the 6 to 9 degrees above normal range. While still very hot, this is still a few degrees shy of record values for most of our climate sites. However, things will begin to get even hotter Friday as the offshore high pressure ridge begins to shift inland, and eventually overhead Sunday through Wednesday. This will ensure our temperatures continue to climb, and are still anticipated to challenge daily and some all-time high temperature records for Sunday and into much of next week. The current head headlines continue to look good, with the previous shift expanding the Excessive Heat Warnings to include Lincoln and northern Mohave counties, as well as adding heat advisories for the higher terrain areas. Those looking to escape the intense desert heat in the mountains will find it`s plenty hot in the higher altitudes as well, and that combined with the intense sunshine and thin mountain air can be a dangerous combination. The duration and intensity of this heatwave are unlikely any we`ve forecasted in recent memory, and we want to stress preparedness and avoidance of the heat as much as possible. Stay hydrated, limit outdoor exposure, and take frequent breaks in air conditioned shelter if you do have to be outside. The unrelenting heat will persist into most of next week. By late in the week however, there are some hints the high pressure ridge may migrate far enough north and east to allow for a more southerly or easterly flow to develop, ushering in at least a modest return in monsoon moisture and possibly easing our intense heat. However, some guidance suggests the high pressure ridge could stay anchored overhead, extending our heat episode into next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds through about 20Z may vary from north-northwest around 350 degrees to northeast around 020 to 030 degrees, however expected northeast to be the more frequent direction. Wind speed should remain under 10KT with only a 20% chance for speeds of 10KT or higher. After 20Z, winds will transition to a east-northeast direction and will remain under 8KT through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, a brief period of northwest winds is expected after 04Z. If this does not happen, typical southwest winds will develop instead. No matter the direction, there is a 90%+ probability that winds will remain under 8KT all night. Winds Friday morning will increase out of the northeast after sunrise. Wind speeds around 10KT are expected with occasional gusts up to 20KT through 21Z when winds will diminish to 8 KT or less and become east. No impactful weather or clouds are expected through the TAF period. Dangerous heat is today and Monday afternoon with temperatures over 100 degrees expected each day 18Z through 03Z. High temperatures over 110F are likely. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Wind speeds will generally remain under 10KT today, favoring the north to northwest in many locations. KBIH will see light winds through the early afternoon before north to northeast winds briefly increase to around 10KT late this afternoon and early this evening. There is a moderate (40%-50%) chance for wind speeds over 10KT between 23Z through 09Z. After 09Z, wind speeds will drop to under 8KT and typical wind patterns will set up through Friday morning. Elevated west winds will develop this evening at KDAG with gusts up to 25KT possible but it`s nothing atypical for KDAG. Down the Colorado River Valley, light winds through tonight will become north to northeast early Friday morning, with gusts to around 20KT developing after sunrise. No impactful weather or clouds are expected through the TAF period. && .CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record. The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). MAX THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 115(1985)* 116(2007)* 115(2007)* 116(2017)* Bishop 107(2007)* 108(2007)* 105(2021)* 107(2021)* Needles 121(2007) 121(1989)* 120(1922)* 122(2017) Daggett 117(1991) 118(2007)* 115(2007)* 116(1989)* Kingman 110(2007)* 109(2007)* 108(2017)* 112(2017) Desert Rock 112(1985)* 112(2007)* 111(2007)* 111(2017)* Death Valley 128(2013) 126(2013)* 127(2007)* 129(2007)* The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast). WARM MIN THU, JUL 4 FRI, JUL 5 SAT, JUL 6 SUN, JUL 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 91(2015) 89(2013)* 90(1957)* 93(2018)* Bishop 67(2001) 67(1984) 67(1985) 72(2014) Needles 95(2013) 92(2013) 97(1903) 95(1942) Daggett 88(2001) 84(1984)* 83(2007)* 80(2018) Kingman 80(2013) 78(2021) 79(1981) 80(1917) Desert Rock 83(2015) 80(1981) 83(1992) 82(1981) Death Valley 100(1915) 110(1918) 99(2013) 101(2021) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Pierce DISCUSSION...Outler AVIATION...Nickerson CLIMATE...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter