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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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396 FXUS63 KUNR 141935 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 135 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cooler this week with chances for showers and storms && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Central Canada upper low will retrograde back west and support lower heights into the Northern Plains this week as the western CONUS ridge flattens. This will shift the main storm track and baroclinic zone back south of the region with impulses traversing the flow through most of the week, supporting chances for showers/storms. Sfc trough will shift east through the FA this evening as another stronger associated impulse shifts across ND. Much drier air will settle into the western third with winds veering NW most places overnight. Any convection associated with this impulse will remain east of the FA from ND into eastern SD. A secondary monsoon impulse (aided by the jet streak to the north) will support elevated convection tonight across much of the area, starting in the west this evening and spreading east overnight. Expecting much of this activity to be sct-isold with mainly limited rainfall amounts. Cool front will settled into the region and stall across the far SW or just to the south. This feature will provide the focus for convection the next few days as several impulses traverse the Rockies ridge and advect over the region. Enough monsoon and GOMEX moisture will be in place to support a few areas of localized rainfall. However, convection will be isold-sct through the period, outside of the central and southern BH where the best chances for storms will be due to terrain effects. A few strong to severe storms will be possible during the upcoming week if deeper moisture and stronger flow lines up, and times with peak heating. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday) Issued At 1116 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may lead to localized reduced cigs/vsbys late this afternoon through the overnight. A front crossing the area will bring a shift to northwesterly winds through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued At 133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Hot temperatures will continue today along with elevated fire weather conditions. Expect RH`s dipping to 10 to 15 percent from northeast WY into far western SD, with slightly higher RH`s further east. However, relatively light winds are expected. Breezy northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH`s will be a bit higher. Nearly daily chances for storms will continue through at least the middle of the week, with temperatures early to mid week around average. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...Sherburn FIRE WEATHER...JC