086
FNUS75 KTWC 152059
FWSTWC

Spot Forecast for Mae...AZ-AZS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
159 PM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 MST on July 15.

.DISCUSSION...
Strong thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over the little Dragoon mountains,
as another area of disturbed weather producing the storms moves from east to west
over the incident. The threat of strong storms continues into Tuesday.
There will be the threat of thunderstorm outflow winds which can exceed 50 mph
and result in extreme fire behavior and/or a change in the direction of fire
spread.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 50 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................4 until 1700, then 3.
Max temperature.....84-87 degrees.
Min humidity........32-35 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 10 knots.

TIME (MST)      2 PM      5 PM
Sky (%).........74        65
Weather cov.....LIKELY    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY    CHANCE
CWR.............60        50
LAL.............4         3
Temp............85        79
RH..............33        40
20 FT wind......NW 9G13   W 8G12
Mix hgt (ft)....11800     5700
Transport wind..N 8       NW 10
Haines index....3         3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then isolated showers and
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent decreasing to 10 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2300, then 2 until 0500, then 1.
Min temperature.....66-69 degrees.
Max humidity........69-72 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 22 knots decreasing to around 7
                    knots.

TIME (MST)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........65        65        43        43
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC     S CHC
CWR.............50        50        20        20
LAL.............3         3         2         2
Temp............79        74        70        67
RH..............41        49        62        69
20 FT wind......W 8G12    W 9G13    W 8G12    W 7G10
Mix hgt (ft)....3900      400       400       500
Transport wind..NW 14     NW 18     W 12      NW 15
Haines index....3         2         3         3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
                    Showers and thunderstorms likely late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent increasing to 60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1100, then 3 until 1700, then 4.
Max temperature.....85-88 degrees.
Min humidity........27-30 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 11 knots.

TIME (MST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........35        6         67        67
Weather cov.....                    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                    CHANCE    CHANCE
CWR.............10        10        50        50
LAL.............1         1         3         3
Temp............68        75        83        86
RH..............68        48        36        29
20 FT wind......W 6G10    NW 8G12   NW 10G14  NW 9G13
Mix hgt (ft)....800       2900      4900      5100
Transport wind..NW 8      N 10      N 7       NW 7
Haines index....3         3         3         3

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...MIKE PICKETT
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418122.0/TWC
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AIDCLOGISTICS@DFFM.AZ.GOV

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