789
FXUS64 KTSA 131647
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms along the Kansas border continue
to diminish in intensity and areal coverage this morning, with the
more notable activity ongoing in eastern Kansas and into Missouri
not making much of a run towards the area. CAM trends show a
further weakening toward midday so will continue with non-
mentionable POPs after 18Z. Minor adjustments to the existing POPs
through the morning have been made according to observational
trends and CAM output. Sky cover has also been adjusted upward
along the Kansas and Missouri borders, with a decrease expected
through the afternoon.

The larger issue for today is whether parts of the area will
exceed heat advisory criteria. Temperatures remain likely to be a
degree or two warmer than yesterday in most spots, with dew points
near to just above 70 in the afternoon. This pushes a few
locations near the 105 heat index threshold. Overall, both high
temperatures and the forecast dew points from the previous shift
appear reasonable and no adjustments will be made at this time. As
such, will also hold off for now on a Heat Advisory today but will
adjust accordingly if observed temperatures or dew points exceed
expectations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Mid level ridging will continue to dominate the Plains for the
next several days, leading to hot and dry conditions into the
middle part of next week. Heat headlines will likely be needed
from Sunday through Tuesday as these are expected to be the
hottest days of the period. Highs will be near or above 100 for
most of the area through Tuesday, with breezy conditions keeping
overnight lows mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. By the middle
part of the week however, a deep upper trough will drop into the
eastern CONUS pushing the ridge back west. Strengthening
northwesterly flow aloft over the Plains should allow for a
frontal boundary to drift through the region by Wednesday into
Thursday. This will bring increasing thunderstorm chances along
with cooler temperatures for the latter part of the work week and
next weekend. Subtle differences exist in the ensemble guidance in
how far west the ridge shifts, which will play a role in where
the more widespread rain chances set up. Shower/storm chances look
to continue through the rest of this forecast package as the
ridge axis remains well west of the region.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with existing
mid cloud cover at the NE OK and far NW AR terminals diminishing
through the afternoon and evening. Some CU developing near MLC/FSM
and will carry a mention of lower cloud heights at those two
terminals with coverage unlikely to be more than FEW-SCT. Wind
gusts 15-20 kts remain likely this afternoon at BVO/TUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   97  77  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   96  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   94  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   98  73  99  74 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   94  72  96  72 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   93  72  97  72 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   94  74  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  74  97  76 /  20  10   0   0
F10   95  73  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   93  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...22