210
FXUS64 KTSA 091959
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Rain associated with the remnants of Beryl have moved well northeast
of the area this afternoon, with just some small isolated showers
ongoing in far NE OK and NW AR. Short range guidance suggests this
activity may continue into early evening, so have maintained slight
chance PoPs in accordance with HREF neighborhood probabilities.
While there may be enough instability for some lightning, would not
expect more than a few strikes after 7 PM.

For tonight, expect mainly clear skies and calm winds. Have nudged
temps down a few degrees in the typically colder spots, but lows
will generally remain in the 60s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The remainder of the week looks predominately dry as troughing
gradually shifts east of the region and places our area under NW
flow aloft. That being said, spotty diurnal showers/ storms will be
possible over the next several days... though coverage and
probability of occurring should remain limited enough to preclude
mentionable PoPs at this time. CAMs have also begun to indicate
potential for some scattered showers late Wednesday night/Thursday
morning for NE OK... likely associated with a passing subtle
upper level disturbance. But again, opted to keep PoPs below
mentionable values at this time due to low potential and limited
coverage. Upper level ridging begins to intensify overhead by this
weekend and persists into early next week. This will likely lead
to another episode of very hot temperatures/ heat indices with
heat headlines probable.

High temps start the period (tomorrow) in the upper 80s and lower
90s, but climb into the upper 90s and lower 100s by early next week.
Lows primarily remain in the upper 60s and 70s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Sct to bkn cu with cigs in the low VFR range will prevail thru the
afternoon. Sfc winds will be N to NW with speeds generally blo
impactful levels. Clear skies are expected tonight with light
winds. Some fog is possible at the far NW AR terminals after
midnight and have inserted tempo MVFR BR mention.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  93  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   69  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   67  92  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   62  93  67  96 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   61  89  65  92 /  20   0   0  10
BYV   62  88  65  92 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   66  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   64  90  67  93 /  10   0   0  10
F10   66  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   67  92  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30