287
FXUS64 KTSA 021719
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Another hot and humid day shaping up with heat headlines covering
the entire forecast area. Highest dew points remain concentrated
through eastern OK, although some lower values are present across
central OK. Given a modest veering in sfc winds some of this
"drier" air will push into far western areas, but that said
dangerous heat and humidity with max HI values in the 105 to 115
range still warrant maintaining headlines as they are.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Upper ridge will begin to shift slowly east on Wednesday. This
should allow a weak front to approach far northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas during the day with a few scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible. Although deep layer shear will remain marginal, instability
could be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with locally
damaging winds. Hot and humid conditions will continue south of
frontal boundary with heat indices at or above 105 degrees across
much of the area.

A broad mid level trough with embedded low will shift into the
central/northern Plains on Thursday. Better shower/thunderstorm
chances are expected with this system Thursday eve into Thursday
night as cold front pushes through the region. A few of these
storms could also be strong to severe.

A significant break from the heat is expected on Friday behind front
with some lingering showers/thunderstorms across southeast
Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas during the day. In addition, temperatures
should stay near normal through the weekend into early next week
as a series of upper level waves traverse in stronger northwest
flow aloft. At least low precip chances also expected through this
period as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. SOuth
winds will continue gusting in the 20-25 knot range into the
early evening, before trending more light and variable tonight and
Wed morning. Expect increase in mid clouds across NE OK very
early Wed morning as weakening showers and thunderstorms track
across southern KS. The may result in low prob of precip at KBVo
as well as a shift to north winds for a time Wed AM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  80  98  79 /   0  10  20  20
FSM   99  80 101  79 /   0   0  20   0
MLC   98  79  99  78 /   0   0  20   0
BVO  100  75  92  74 /   0  20  30  20
FYV   96  77  97  75 /   0  10  30  10
BYV   96  77  95  73 /   0  10  40  20
MKO   97  78  98  77 /   0  10  20  20
MIO   97  76  91  75 /   0  30  30  30
F10   99  78  98  77 /   0  10  20  10
HHW   96  78  96  78 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...14