158
FXUS64 KTSA 141058
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Hot and humid conditions intensify today across the region as the
mid level ridge continues to expand eastward into the Plains.
Highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping
out in the upper 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. That combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will yield
heat index values in excess of 100 to 108 degrees this afternoon.
Have expanded the heat advisory across most of northeast Oklahoma
for this afternoon, for heat indices over 105. A few isolated
showers/storms could also impact parts of northern Oklahoma along
the Kansas border this morning, but coverage is expected to be
minimal before diminishing later this morning. Breezy southerly
winds will also increase again this afternoon, with gusts of 20-25
mph common north of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

The heat continues into early next week with highs expected to
range from the upper 90s to 103 across the region. Additional heat
headlines will likely be needed Monday and Tuesday as well. Dry
weather will dominate during this timeframe under influence of
the ridge.

A pattern shift remains on the horizon beginning Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The upper ridge is progged to shift back westward
by Wednesday, allowing modest northwesterly flow aloft to develop
over much of Central and Southern Plains. This will allow a
frontal boundary to drop into the area Tuesday night/Wednesday,
with shower and thunderstorm chances accompanying the boundary.
Better storm/heavy rain chances are shaping up to reside across
the eastern half of the forecast area, where better lift is
forecast to be associated with the mid level trough axis.
Widespread rain chances are still expected over much of the CWA
through Thursday though, along with the arrival of below normal
temperatures. the boundary looks to clear southeast Oklahoma on
Thursday, but the trough axis will remain nearby, so PoPs will
stay over the area on Friday as well. Ensemble guidance remains in
good agreement that central and eastern CONUS troughing will last
through the rest of the forecast period, meaning cooler
temperatures and periodic rain chances will last into next
weekend.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered light showers and isolated storms are ongoing across
north central OK. This precip is likely to weaken with decreasing
coverage should it spread into NE OK and flight level impacts are
not expected at local terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
continue with periodic gusty winds through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   96  77  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   99  75 102  77 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   95  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   96  75  98  75 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   96  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   96  77  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
F10   96  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   94  75  96  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>062-064-066-067-070>072-074.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07