441
FXUS64 KTSA 110508
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight) Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms had developed this
afternoon near the Red River and, to a lesser extent, the terrain of
NW AR. Any ongoing precip should come to an end by this evening with
loss of daytime heating and predominantly quiet conditions are
expected overnight featuring mainly clear skies and calm winds. This
should promote effective radiational cooling and have nudged
overnight temps down in the typically colder spots. That being said,
weak isentropic ascent may allow for the development of isolated
showers across NE OK late overnight. Opted to keep PoPs below
mentionable levels during this period as CAMs have been fairly
pessimistic regarding coverage of measurable precip. If this does
occur, more cloud cover may tend to limit the radiational cooling
potential for locations near the OK-KS border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Overall, the weather pattern remains quiet through the extended
period as W CONUS ridging gradually works into the region. A subtle
wave may allow for shower and isolated storm development mainly
across NE OK/ NW AR tomorrow afternoon, though most locations will
likely remain dry. This may occur again on Friday as another impulse
embedded in the flow drifts into the region. While overall potential
for precip development remains limited, any stronger showers or
storms will likely be capable of producing gusty winds with inverted-
V soundings noted on model soundings. Otherwise, the forecast
remains largely dry through the end of the period.

Temperatures are expected to climb through the remainder of this
week and into next week as upper level ridging intensifies overhead.
At this time, high temps appear to approach or exceed 100 degrees in
spots by early next week. With southerly flow returning and
maintaining low-level moisture, dewpoints will likely allow for very
hot heat indices and heat headlines appear probable for some by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the forecast period.
&&There is a non-zero chance of a stray shower or storms across
northeast OK through the morning, but very low probability of
impacting any one location.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  97  76  97 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   72  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   70  97  72  97 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   68  93  71  94 /   0  10   0  10
BYV   68  93  71  95 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   72  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   71  94  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
F10   72  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   70  93  72  92 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...14