578
FXUS64 KTSA 112341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated to scattered elevated showers were stubborn to dissipate
this morning and early afternoon associated with an elongated SW-NE
upper level trough axis. While these showers have since dissipated,
a shortwave rounding the western periphery of the parent trough may
be able to produce additional showers and thunderstorms later this
evening/ overnight as it moves through the region. Felt NBM PoPs
were too low during this period and opted to introduce an area of
slight chance PoPs for portions of NE OK & NW AR where PWATs were
highest and HREF neighborhood probabilities were most favorable.
That being said, precip coverage is currently expected to remain
fairly isolated in our FA, with slightly higher coverage expected in
KS/ MO. Additionally, with adequate effective shear and instability
in place, there is a marginal risk of a strong to marginally severe
storm... primarily along the OK-KS border this evening/ early
overnight. If this were to occur, heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts,
and perhaps some hail would be the primary hazards as mid-level
lapse rates gradually steepen.

Low potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms continues
overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning as shortwave activity
continues to influence the region in conjunction with an increasing
LLJ. NE OK and NW AR still appear to be the focus for any additional
precip potential through this period, gradually shifting to the east
by tomorrow morning. Outside of any showers or storms, skies
should tend to remain mostly clear or partly cloudy with lows
falling into the upper 60s/ lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Overall, expecting similar conditions tomorrow with mostly sunny
skies. There was enough potential for showers and storms to
introduce slight chance PoPs across Osage/ Pawnee counties late
tomorrow afternoon/ evening as another subtle disturbance moves
through the region. But otherwise, expect much of the FA to stay
dry. Otherwise, the main theme of the extended period continues to
be increasing potential for dangerous heat. Upper level ridging
currently centered on the intermountain west will expand eastward
over our area by this weekend & early next week. With southerly
flow resuming at the sfc promoting elevated dew points, heat
indices will likely require heat headlines late this weekend and
early next week. Opted to blend with NBM 90th percentile for dew
points during this period across NW AR where Beryl produced heavy
rainfall recently. By mid week or so, long range guidance
suggests a front will attempt to push into the region. If this
were to occur, would likely see some rain out of it as well as a
return to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers/thunderstorms have develop along quasi-stationary
boundary located over east-central Kansas/west-central MO. A few
of these storms could move into northeast Oklahoma later this evening
with an isolated storm or two lingering overnight. Given the limited
storm coverage expected, including best chances remaining between
NE OK/NW AR TAF sites, will not include at this time. Gusty southwest
winds will develop at NE OK terminals Friday afternoon with VFR
conditions expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  98  76  98 /  20  10  10   0
FSM   73  97  73  97 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   72  94  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   68  99  71  99 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   67  94  69  95 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   69  94  68  96 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   72  94  72  95 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   71  94  73  95 /  20  20   0   0
F10   73  95  72  96 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   71  93  70  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...12