704
FXUS64 KTSA 121536
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated showers (and occasionally a lightning strike or two)
continue this morning across portions of E OK and NW AR. Coverage
has trended downward over the last couple of hours and would
expect this to continue through the late morning. Opted to keep
slight chance PoPs in place until early afternoon, mainly across
SE OK & NW AR. Additional low shower/ storm chances are introduced
for late afternoon/ evening (Osage/Pawnee/Washington counties) as
HREF continues to hint at diurnally driven development. That
being said, the latest runs tend to keep better chances west of
our area. Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track with no
significant deviations needed at this time. Highs top out in the
upper 90s for NE OK and in the lower-mid 90s for SE OK/ NW AR
under mostly clear skies (aside from any shower/storm activity).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Weak upper wave continues to drift southeastward this morning
across eastern Kansas/western Missouri. A cluster of strong to
severe thunderstorms has been persistent overnight near the nose
of the low level jet/mid level trough axis intersection across
southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. a few storms have
developed into far northeast Oklahoma as well, but less favorable
instability and shear has allowed these storms to stay relatively
benign in our forecast area. This activity will slowly drift
eastward into northwest Arkansas through the rest of the morning,
and gradually weaken later this morning with the diminishing low
level jet after sunrise. Brief heavy downpours and some gusty
winds will be the main threats in our area with any storms this
morning. The rest of the area will remain quiet, with a mild start
to the day with temperatures starting out in the mid to upper 70s
for most locations. The warm up will continue today as the
expanding western CONUS ridge hedges further east. The heat and
humidity will lead to most locations seeing heat index values in
excess of 100 degrees this afternoon. Some locations could push
Heat Advisory criteria, but will leave for the next shift to
monitor the trends if one is needed later today. A few spotty
showers/storms will be possible later this afternoon across parts
of northern Oklahoma as another weak disturbance moves across the
region and the deeply mixed boundary layer will be uncapped by
late afternoon. Again, brief heavy downpours and some strong wind
gusts will be the main concern if any storms develop.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main theme for much of the extended period will be the
building heat across the region this weekend into early next week
as the upper level ridge becomes planted over the area. A few
storms could graze far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
again late Friday night into Saturday as the area remains on the
periphery of the ridge and several weak disturbances move through
the flow. By later Saturday through the middle of next week
however, hot and dry will be the story under the ridge. Heat
headlines will likely be needed in the coming days. Relief could
arrive by the middle part of next week as the upper ridge begins
to weaken and shift southward, allowing a boundary to drop into
the region. This would bring more rain chances along with cooler
temperatures for the latter part of next week.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Scattered showers and storms will continue through mid to late
morning with far NW AR terminals the most likely to experience any
brief flight category impacts. VFR conditions will prevail away
from any of the heavier storms and persist through the remainder
of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   96  74  98  74 /  30   0   0   0
MLC   95  73  95  74 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   98  73  98  73 /  20  20  10   0
FYV   93  72  95  71 /  30   0  10   0
BYV   93  73  95  72 /  30   0  10   0
MKO   95  74  96  75 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   94  75  96  75 /  30  10  10   0
F10   96  73  96  74 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   95  72  93  73 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...43
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07