506
FXUS64 KTSA 181603
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1049 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Quiet weather is expected today to the north of I-40 with partly
sunny skies, light northeast winds, and highs in the mid 80s to
near 90F.

South of I-40, cloud cover will be thicker due to a 850-700
hPa low near the OK-AR-TX triple point. Some modest low level
convergence will occur in an area with sufficient instability and
moisture to kick off a few showers and storms. Any storms will
wrap up by late afternoon. High temperatures in the south will
mostly be in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Friday looks nice with a pleasantly cool morning and sunny skies
with below normal temps through the day. Dry weather likely
continues into Saturday with precip developing west of the local
forecast region. The pattern aloft will begin to feature a deeper
trough axis and weak upper low settling into the central /
southern Plains by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop as this occurs with precip
chances increasing area wide Sunday into Monday. Temps will
continue to be below normal with widespread cloud cover and
expected precip coverage.

The trough axis will move slowly southeastward through mid week
with a gradual eastward focus for the higher precip chances. Below
normal temps continue through this time frame. Somewhat warmer
temps may build back across the region by late next week, but
likely not extreme as the upper ridge remains anchored across the
western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with scattered mid
to high clouds. Generally light northeasterly winds this morning
could gust to around 15 knots this afternoon across NE OK. Very
isolated showers/storms will also be possible through the
afternoon across SE OK, but chances were too low to mention for
any TAF site currently.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  64  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   87  68  88  65 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   87  66  89  66 /  20   0   0   0
BVO   87  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   85  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   82  60  83  59 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   87  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   86  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
F10   87  63  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   86  67  89  65 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04