Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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215 FXUS64 KTSA 041756 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 At mid/late morning a surface boundary/wind shift was positioned from the Texas Panhandle through Western Oklahoma into North Central Oklahoma...near Osage county...and extended northeast though Southeast Kansas. Behind this boundary...the true cold front was located across Western/Northern Kansas moving southeast. Ahead of these features...south to southwesterly winds and temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s were common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. The leading boundary/wind shift is progged to continue to sag east southeast into Northeast Oklahoma for this afternoon. This boundary is forecast to be near Interstate 44 around mid afternoon and become the focus for storm initiation as convective temperatures are reached. Latest short term solutions continue to indicate development in the 20-22z time frame across Northeast Oklahoma. This activity is expected to continue to develop and spread into Northwest Arkansas and Southeast Oklahoma late afternoon/early evening. The combination of increasing instability and max heating interacting with the boundary will increase severe potentials across the CWA through the evening hours...with the greater potential across Northeast Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas. Inverted V model soundings along with increasing low level lapse rates will create locally damaging winds to be the main threat with the strongest storms. Marginal shear values could allow for hail to be a secondary severe threat. Also with the convection will be abundant amounts of moisture for the storms to work with. Precipitable water values up around 2 inches will aid in efficient rain producing storms with locally heavy rainfall through this evening. Besides the increasing convection potential this afternoon...hot and humid conditions are expected to be in place across the CWA ahead of the boundary. Forecast high temps in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees and heat index values of 105 to around 112 degrees remain likely. Thus...will continue current heat headlines as they are for now. The true cold front is not forecast to reach/move into the CWA until this evening. Finally...for the morning update...have added minor adjustments to PoPs into this evening based on the mentioned above and also added a few tweaks to afternoon hourly temp/dewpoint trends. The rest of the forecast looks to be trending well at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across far southeast Oklahoma Friday morning before cold front pushes south. A welcome break from the heat/humidity expected behind the front with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak surface high pressure builds into the region into Saturday as northwest flow aloft continues. Both GFS/ECMWF still suggest the potential for an MCS to move into portions of Oklahoma Sunday evening/overnight as stronger upper wave dives southeast into the central Plains. Obviously there is still some uncertainty regarding evolution, however strongest storms may remain west of area in the deeper moisture/instability axis. Regardless, precipitation chances will increase, especially across northeast Oklahoma. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal into the early to middle part of next week as west to northwest flow aloft persists. Remnants of Beryl should remain mainly south of area during this time, but increasing low level moisture will likely allow for at least scattered, mainly afternoon/evening storms across SE OK/NW AR both Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to spread over the CWA this afternoon as a surface boundary moves over Northeast Oklahoma. Convection initiation remains forecast along and near this boundary starting mid afternoon and spreading east southeast through the region this evening/tonight. Have added VCTS and Tempo groups for timing to all TAF sites. Within the convection will be the potential for gusty to strong winds...locally heavy rainfall and brief MVFR conditions. A cold front will then push through the CWA this evening/tonight behind the initial line of convection with additional showers/storms possible into the overnight hours from north to south. For now have added VCTS/VCSH for timing of this second round of precip. Some scattered/broken MVFR conditions are possible again with the front. Behind the front...scattered to broken high clouds are forecast into Friday morning. There are some indications that some patchy areas of reduced visibility may develop early Friday morning near the Kansas and Missouri borders...though for now will hold off on mentioning in the TAFs. Winds through the period start out south to southwest...become variable with the precip and then shift out of the west to north behind the cold front tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 99 70 90 66 / 70 60 10 0 FSM 100 75 92 68 / 30 60 10 0 MLC 99 72 88 65 / 20 70 30 0 BVO 96 65 88 61 / 50 60 0 0 FYV 97 69 88 62 / 40 70 10 0 BYV 98 69 86 62 / 30 70 0 0 MKO 98 70 87 65 / 60 70 10 0 MIO 96 66 85 63 / 60 60 0 0 F10 99 70 86 65 / 60 70 20 0 HHW 97 73 87 68 / 0 50 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>059-063- 064-068-069-075. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076. AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019- 020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...20