Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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925 FXUS64 KTSA 051548 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A weak shortwave combined with elevated frontogenetic forcing continued to move south and southeast across the region this morning. In response...scattered showers and thunderstorms remained ongoing...mainly closer to the shortwave center over Western/Central Oklahoma. A few showers/storms had developed along the southward push of the frontogenetic forcing band across Southeast Oklahoma. Across the rest of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...partly to mostly cloudy conditions and cooler temps were common. Through this afternoon...the shortwave and elevated front are progged to continue to slide off to the south and southeast and exit late afternoon/early evening. Will continue to hold onto small chance PoPs and shift them southward across Southeast Oklahoma through the afternoon. A limiting factor will be drier air pushing into Southeast Oklahoma on the backside of the front along with instability exiting to the south and southeast this afternoon. Thus...not expecting severe weather and any additional QPF should remain light. Scattered to broken cloud cover should continue across the majority of the CWA this afternoon while the shortwave moves through the region. These cloud conditions and northerly low level flow filtering through the CWA will help to keep temps cooler this afternoon. Current forecast high temps in the 80s to around 90 deg remain on track...and for the morning update have only added minor adjustments to PoPs/Sky grids for the afternoon to account for the movement of the shortwave. The rest of the forecast looks to be in good shape at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The drier airmass with clearing skies will allow for a pleasantly cool night tonight, with most areas falling into the lower-mid 60s. This type of regime often results in low temps below the NBM and closer to traditional MOS numbers, which have been favored for lows tonight. Dry weather will continue through Saturday with daytime highs closer to normal. With a high amplitude and strong ridge setting up over the western CONUS, a broad upper trough remains established over the plains, the next several days should feature near to slightly below normal temperatures, and periodic thunderstorm chances returning later in the weekend through a good part of next week. The Sunday night into Monday period remains favored for more extensive storm coverage, with some organized severe potential and heavy rainfall threat during that time. A fair amount of ensemble support has emerged regarding the eventual landfall of "Beryl" in far southern TX early next week. The overall pattern looks to favor the remnant low lifting northeast mid-week, but some potential may exist for this to bring at least a glancing blow of heavier rainfall to parts of western AR and perhaps southeast OK. This is a long way out at this point, but still bears watching in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A slow-moving storm complex over central OK is moving in the general direction of KMLC so a TEMPO was inserted for storm conditions reducing vsbys blo VFR thru 18Z. IFR cigs are occurring now at KMLC just ahead of the front but shouldn`t last long. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with some increase in north winds today. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 67 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 92 70 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 87 66 91 69 / 40 10 10 0 BVO 88 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 10 FYV 88 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 87 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 87 66 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 87 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 F10 87 66 90 67 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 87 69 90 69 / 40 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...30