783
FXUS64 KTSA 080143
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
843 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 829 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface boundary that extends
from northwest Texas to near the Red River across southeast Oklahoma
may graze our extreme southeast Oklahoma Counties over the next
couple of hours. Any of these storms would have the potential to
to be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail the concern.
Additional elevated scattered showers/storms are expected through the
night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front and
associated mid-level trof push into the region from the north and west.

Have made some adjustments to the forecast for tonight based on the
latest trends in short-term model guidance and observations.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The main concern for the extended portion of the forecast revolves
around the level of impacts as Beryl approaches and moves across
the ArkLaTex into Arkansas Monday and into Tuesday. The main
change to earlier thinking is an increase in the rainfall amounts
tied to a slightly westward shift in the forecast track of the
center. Increasing moisture well ahead of the center will begin to
spread and bring some heavy rain potential to southeast Oklahoma
as early as tomorrow afternoon. The heaviest rains should occur
Monday night and into Tuesday morning, including into northwest
and west central Arkansas, with a taper from southwest to
northeast into Tuesday evening. Given this track, widespread 3 to
5 inch amounts, with locally higher totals in the 7 to 8 inch
range, should be common east of a line from McAlester to Rogers.
If this trend continues, a Flood Watch may be necessary in future
shifts.

In addition to the heavy rain concerns, gusty winds can be
expected in association with the approach of the center,
especially in the higher terrain in southeast Oklahoma.

Following Beryl`s departure, the overall chance for showers and
thunderstorms will remain minimal through the end of the work week
and into the next weekend. Heat and humidity is also expected to
climb, especially by the weekend, as the western upper level ridge
builds to the east. Heat headlines are likely in the not-so-
distant future once again. Depending on how quickly the ridge
builds into the area, there may be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms into southeast Oklahoma late Saturday but with some
uncertainties regarding that transition, no mentionable POPs will
be included for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Ongoing VFR conditions will persist through much of the evening
with expectation for expanding showers and storms across NE OK and
possibly far NW AR later tonight. A steady increase in shower and
storm coverage is expected from late tonight through the day
tomorrow. Overall ceilings should trend from low VFR into MVFR
levels through the day with periodic lower flight levels likely
given likelihood of heavy rainfall rates at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  83  68  82 /  60  60  30  30
FSM   73  82  69  80 /  20  90  70  70
MLC   70  81  66  81 /  30  90  50  40
BVO   66  83  65  83 /  60  50  30  20
FYV   68  80  65  76 /  30  80  70  70
BYV   69  80  65  74 /  30  80  70  80
MKO   69  82  66  81 /  50  60  50  40
MIO   67  84  66  81 /  60  60  40  40
F10   67  81  66  82 /  60  60  40  40
HHW   71  81  66  83 /  30  90  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07