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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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490 FXUS64 KTSA 050827 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A welcome reprieve from day after day of heat headlines starts today, courtesy of a cold front that continues to push through eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible within the frontal zone through today as it pushes southward, but any storms should remain sub-severe. Drier airmass over the central plains will eventually move south with widespread dew points in the 60s. Much better. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The drier airmass with clearing skies will allow for a pleasantly cool night tonight, with most areas falling into the lower-mid 60s. This type of regime often results in low temps below the NBM and closer to traditional MOS numbers, which have been favored for lows tonight. Dry weather will continue through Saturday with daytime highs closer to normal. With a high amplitude and strong ridge setting up over the western CONUS, a broad upper trough remains established over the plains, the next several days should feature near to slightly below normal temperatures, and periodic thunderstorm chances returning later in the weekend through a good part of next week. The Sunday night into Monday period remains favored for more extensive storm coverage, with some organized severe potential and heavy rainfall threat during that time. A fair amount of ensemble support has emerged regarding the eventual landfall of "Beryl" in far southern TX early next week. The overall pattern looks to favor the remnant low lifting northeast mid-week, but some potential may exist for this to bring at least a glancing blow of heavier rainfall to parts of western AR and perhaps southeast OK. This is a long way out at this point, but still bears watching in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail outside of a low chance of direct tsra impact to an airport. Sct to bkn mid and high cloud can be expected thru the period with north winds developing on Friday in the wake of a front. Gusts may occasionally exceed 15 kts in some spots. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 89 67 92 71 / 10 0 0 10 FSM 92 70 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 87 66 91 69 / 20 10 10 0 BVO 88 62 92 67 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 88 62 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 87 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 87 66 91 68 / 10 0 0 10 MIO 87 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 F10 87 66 90 67 / 20 10 0 10 HHW 87 69 90 69 / 40 10 10 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...30