759
FXUS63 KTOP 091141
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Look for dry conditions through the forecast period.

- Pleasant high temperatures Today.

- Seasonal high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

- High heat returns this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Early this morning an H5 trough lifting northeast across the
southern Plains has phased with the remnants of Beryl across western
AR and east TX. An amplified upper ridge continues across the
western US, with a broad H5 ridge axis across the mid Atlantic and
southeast US. Northwest flow at the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere was noted across the Plains.

At the surface, the surface low that was once Hurricane Beryl, was
located along the tri-state border of AR/TX/LA. The western edge of
the precip was moving north-northeast along the OK/AR border, then
northeast from southwest MO into central MO. This rain band will
remain southeast of the CWA this morning.

Today through Thursday night:

The phased upper trough with Beryl remnants will amplify as it lifts
northeast from AR/LA into the Great Lakes Wednesday evening. A
second mid-level perturbation will dig southeast on the west side of
the H5 rough across the Great Lakes/Mid MS River Valley. At this
time, the better ascent ahead of the perturbation will be located
across eastern NE, IA, and north central/northeast MO. The Northwest
mid-level flow across the Plains will keep high temperatures
seasonable, with highs Today only reaching the lower to mid 80s east
and mid to upper 80s west. There will be a slight warm up Wednesday
and Thursday with mid 80s to around 90 degrees east and lower to mid
90s west. The PBL will mix deep enough for dewpoints to mix down
into the lower to mid 60s, may be upper 50s far west. Thus, the heat
indices should remain close to daytime high temperatures Wednesday
and Thursday.

Friday through Monday:

The western US H5 ridge will expand east across the Plains Saturday
into Monday. Temperatures will really warm up this weekend into
early next week. Highs Friday will reach the lower to mid 90s east
with upper 90s west. Saturday will see highs reach the lower to mid
90s east to the upper 90s to around 102 degrees west. Sunday and
Monday most the CWA should see triple digit highs, with 100 to 103
across the eastern counties and 102 to 107 across the western
counties. A heat advisory will probably be needed across the area
both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Much of the area had heat indices
forecasted to be 102 to 110 for both Sunday and Monday afternoons.
Though, some areas may stay below criteria, depending on how deep
the PBL mixes during the afternoon hours and richer moisture
advection.

Monday night through Tuesday:

An H5 trough will dig southeast across the northern Plains and
amplify across the Great Lakes. This may dampen the H5 ridge axis
and send a weak front southward late in the day. Highs may be a bit
cooler with mid to upper 90s across much of the CWA. There may be a
slight chance of showers and storms across the northern counties
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be a few
cirrus clouds. During the afternoon a few cumulus clouds may
develop around the KTOP and KFOE but bases will be above 5000
feet. North winds will remain under 10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan