874
FXUS63 KTOP 100539
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures for the next couple days.

- Heat returns for the weekend and early next week with temperatures
above 100 at times and heat indices 102-108.

- Minor rain chances tomorrow evening and night, but overall staying
dry through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A look at satellite imagery this afternoon shows the remnants of
Beryl spinning away to our east over the central Mississippi Valley.
In its wake, high pressure is moving southward across the central
Plains. A weak convergence band in between these two features has
led to a few tiny sprinkles/showers popping up over the Flint Hills
over the past few hours. But overall, the dry northerly flow is
keeping another mild and mostly sunny day in place, with mid to
upper 80s temperatures and low to mid 60s dewpoints. Overnight
temperatures should again drop into the low 60s as high pressure
moves overhead and brings clear/calm conditions.

Tomorrow and Thursday will see a continuation of near average
temperatures and seasonably low humidity. 850 mb temps do increase
by a bit each day, so we should break 90 degrees for the first time
in a week. A shortwave trough dropping southeast within northwest
flow aloft may bring a few showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. Can`t rule out precipitation anywhere
in the area, though the better chances (though still only around
20 percent) will be across far northeast Kansas where upper
support is greater.

Beyond Thursday, the heat makes a return, especially by Sunday and
into early next week. The strong upper ridge that has been bringing
persistent heat to the West Coast moves east over the Rockies and
Plains. 850 mb temperatures increase to 24-28C as that occurs.
As usual with these types of setups, the question is less will
it be hot, but how hot will it be and what type of heat will it
be? The main question is the degree of boundary layer mixing.
Deeper mixing with more southwesterly winds could lead to very
hot temperatures (100+) but slightly lower humidity, while
lesser mixing and more southerly winds would keep temperatures
slightly lower (upper 90s) but humidity higher. Regardless,
either scenario would likely support widespread heat indices
above 100, potentially peaking in the 103-108 degree range
Sunday and Monday. By the very end of the period, there are some
signs that a shallow shortwave trough may try to flatten the
ridge and send a weak front through, but confidence this far out
is low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There may be a few
to scattered cumulus clouds developing during the afternoon and
perhaps an isolated shower or storm may develop. The cumulus
and storms will dissipate towards sunset. Expect light northwest
winds becoming southerly Tonight. The winds will remain below
10 KTS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Gargan