605
FXUS63 KTOP 141919
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
219 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather continues through Monday.

- Cold front moves in Monday night with some small chances for
  showers and storms into Wednesday.

- Much cooler temperatures forecast to end the week and last
  through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

19Z water vapor imagery showed the center of the upper ridge
still to the west over the CO/NM state line. At the surface, a
meso high over southwest NEB is weakening and the boundary that
moved through this morning has begun to wash out. The main
impact from this boundary has be to delay the mixing of the
boundary layer and keep dewpoints warmer.

The forecast is relatively straight forwards through Monday as the
12Z RAOB showed 700MB temps of +13 and the models showing mid level
temps only getting warmer. This should keep the boundary layer
capped while mid level drying makes elevated storms unlikely. A few
sites are already around 105 this afternoon and models continue to
advect even warmer air into the forecast area for Monday. Did not go
quite as hot as the NBM has it out west since the ECMWF is a tad
cooler at 925MB and 850MB. But still have forecast highs between 100
and 108. Will also keep the heat advisory as is without any
changes.

A frontal boundary moves into the area Monday night as the upper
ridge to the west brakes down and shortwave energy passes through
the northern plains. Mid level temps are forecast to remain rather
warm between 10C and 14C and think this is the reason models are not
generating much convection with the front. But there are some
solutions that show the potential for shortwave energy to move over
the area late Monday night and Tuesday. If this occurs, height falls
and dynamic forcing may be enough for some precip to develop and
have some low chance POPs in the forecast in spit of the NBM
generally keeping the forecast dry. The NAM and GFS show bulk shear
increasing to between 30KT and 40KT on Tuesday. Combined with some
instability lagging the frontal boundary, think the marginal risk
for severe storms is appropriate with some potential for large hail,
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. The one thing to watch out
for will be the timing of the front. If the boundary continues to
trend faster, the instability could be displaced south by Tuesday
evening.

An uncommonly strong surface ridge is progged to move into the
Midwest for the last half of the work week and next weekend. Models
amplify the pattern with ridging to the west and meridional flow
over the plains allowing for unseasonably cool air to move in and
stay over the plains. Interestingly the NBM shows there isn`t a lot
of spread among the models for the later half of the forecast So
confidence in below normal temperatures is increasing. There may be
some energy dig south along the high plains that could spark some
precip and the forecast has 20% to 30% chance POPs in the forecast
for this.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Warm and dry mid level should inhibit any convection through the
forecast period. A strengthening low level jet of 35KT to 40KT
may pose some risk for wind shear, but think there will be
enough mixing of the boundary layer to limit the risk. Later
shifts can reevaluate. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to
persist.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters