572
FXUS63 KTOP 202308
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
  through Tuesday.

- Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then
  warming through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

MCV from early morning convection has moved into the KC area
while a trailing shallow rain cooled boundary appears to linger
west across parts of the area where a narrow ribbon of precip
continues. This appears due at least in part to shallow
isentropic lift atop the rain cooled air on the east side of the
larger scale circulation across central Kansas. This low level
forcing should weaken through the evening leaving a somewhat
weak low level wind regime across the area. The 850mb
trough/boundary will bisect the area from north to south
overnight however weak winds should limit stronger convergence
and more widespread precip chcs. The only focused area of
southerly 850mb winds should be across far southeast KS
overnight where better precip coverage is expected.

The upper low now across IA will sag south with another area of
mid level vorticity spreading south overnight. Forcing/lift
should remain aloft and with weak sfc/850mb winds would expect
only sct precip with this feature late tonight so will carry
general 20-30 pops later tonight. Meanwhile,
some patchy fog could form across central Kansas tonight where
cloud coverage may be lower.

The area will remain under the influence of the upper trough
through Tuesday with occasional chances for scattered precip
through that time. Timing/location for best chances remains
uncertain at this point given weak low level winds. Temps will
remain below average through at least that period however.

The trough should exit to our east by Weds with warmer temps
into late week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A low (15-20 percent) chance for brief/light showers will remain at
the main TAF sites through the next 24 hours, but the better chances
overall will stay to the south. Expecting generally VFR ceilings to
continue, though can`t rule some brief MVFR ceilings possible
tonight, mainly farther south towards KFOE. Similarly, the best
chance of fog will be to the north of the main TAF sites. Winds stay
around or below 5 kts, generally from the east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Omitt
AVIATION...Reese