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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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490 FXUS63 KTOP 190530 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry weather continues until late Friday night, with showers and thunderstorms off and on through the weekend into early next week. - Cooler than average temperatures into early next week, then moderating toward the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Upper troughing pattern encompasses much of the Great Lakes into the Northeast, while ridging continues to dominate the Four Corners region, which places our area within a northwest flow regime. Expansive sfc high pressure dominates the Midwest. This sfc high will slowly move eastward into Friday, eventually allowing winds to veer back toward the south. The low-level southerly flow should help temperatures warm slightly, though this looks more noticeable toward central KS where mixing is a bit deeper. Highs are forecast in the low to mid 80s east, approaching 90 in north central KS. Can`t rule out a brief shower or sprinkle in north central KS in the morning as decaying showers from western KS make their way into the area; however, dry air in the low levels should prevent most rain from reaching the ground so only have 15% PoPs for a few hours. Better rain chances come late Friday night into Saturday as a vort max dives south through the Plains within the northwest flow aloft. This disturbance then stalls over the area this weekend and develops into a cut-off low into early next week before finally getting pushed out during the middle of the week. While the bulk of shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be during the weekend, it is not expected to be a washout with coverage looking scattered, meaning there should be some dry time in between showers and storms. Instability and shear look rather weak, with MUCAPE generally under 1000 J/kg with the exception of Saturday afternoon, so potential for severe weather looks low. Chance PoPs remain in the forecast Monday and Tuesday as the upper low is still overhead. Longer range guidance generally favors this pattern breaking down toward the middle of the week, although the EC does show another system dropping southward into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, which keeps low PoPs in eastern areas with most locations staying dry. Clouds and rain keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance Saturday through Tuesday with highs forecast in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows generally in the low to mid 60s. Assuming the pattern does start to shift by mid-week, temperatures should start to moderate closer to normal values. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light east southeast winds under 10kts are expected through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...53