877
FXUS63 KTOP 111643
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1143 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/storms possible across east-central KS this
morning and again this evening. Any storms that develop are expected
to be sub-severe.

- Heat continues to build into the weekend and into early next
  week as temperatures approach triple digits and Heat Indices
  push heat advisory criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Taking a look at mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a
compact mid-level low situated over eastern Iowa with a trough axis
extending southwest into central KS, and a large ridge set up over
the Great Basin. Closer to the surface, a narrow nocturnal LLJ has
ramped up over the central Plains with the nose of the jet set up
across central Kansas. This and the mid-level trough axis have
helped to fuel scattered elevated storms across the area with these
expected to persist over the next several hours. Not expecting much
of a severe threat with these storms, but with around 40 knots of
shear and 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE, cannot rule out a strong storm or two
producing small hail. Given where the LLJ nose has set up in central
KS, expecting the strongest convection this morning to reside just
southwest of the area, but cannot rule out some eastward movement of
this as the jet veers and weakens over the next few hours.

For the remainder of the day, maintained some low-end PoPs across
far east-central KS as the trough axis slowly moves east of the
area. CAMs depict a weak frontal boundary that pushes north into the
area this afternoon and evening that could become a focal point for
precipitation this evening and overnight into Friday morning. This
should be aided by another push of mid-level vorticity rounding the
aforementioned upper low and some low-level isentropic ascent within
another nocturnal LLJ. RAP guidance keeps the best lift and support
for storms across areas in far east-central KS with CAMs yielding
some elevated instability lingering across the area overnight. Once
again, not expecting storms to be severe given weak shear and lapse
rates.

By Friday and into next week, heat and dry weather will become the
main story across much of the central US. The large mid-level ridge
deepens into the weekend as it pushes a bit further east. Increasing
mid-level heights, deep BL mixing and WAA at the surface should
increase temperatures Friday through Tuesday into the mid 90s to low
100s, with Sunday and Monday likely seeing the warmest temperatures
area-wide. Heat indices during this period will approach heat
advisory criteria but with deep mixing each afternoon and lower RHs
at peak heating, a heat headline will not be issued at this time due
to uncertainty in the coverage of heat danger. WBGTs over this
period range from the 85 to 87 degrees, depicting a marginal heat
risk. All that said, extensive time in the heat will raise concern
for heat-related injuries and illness, so make sure to be prepared
if your plans include time in the sun.

By the middle of next week, long range guidance breaks down the heat
dome over the central US as an upper-level trough moves through the
northern Plains. PoPs will increase later in the period in
correlation with the passing trough axis as temperatures return to
the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. East winds will
remain just under 10 kt through today and tonight, diminishing some
after dark. After sunset, there is a 20-30% chance of scattered
showers and storms, mostly for TOP/FOE. Coverage will be low, and
confidence was not high enough to include. Tomorrow morning, winds
will pick up out of the SE, and will increase to 8-10 kt.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Montgomery