Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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284 FXUS63 KTOP 041733 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1233 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Thunderstorms containing heavy rain exit to the east early this morning with some lingering flooding. -A cold front could (30-50% chc) then bring scattered storms to eastern KS into this afternoon before the front moves southeast of the area this evening. -Wet weather could return to the area this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 At 08Z (3 AM) today, a complex of thunderstorms was continuing to move through eastern KS. Storms are capable of producing wind gusts to around 50 mph, and have been producing torrential rainfall. Pwats remain around 2.0 inches near and south of I-70 in eastern KS with continued good moisture transport into the area. Thus, a Flood Watch will remain in effect for a portion of east- central KS until 14Z (9 AM) before storms exit to the east. Rainfall totals between 1.0 and 3.0 inches seem likely, with some isolated higher amounts possible into the early morning hours. For the rest of our holiday, a cold front will begin to move through the forecast area late this morning and into the afternoon ahead of a mid-level wave over the Upper Midwest. An unstable air mass will be in place ahead of the boundary, but overall forcing does not look very strong with the main mid-level support to the northeast. CAMs show the possibility for scattered thunderstorm development near the boundary so have a 30-50% chance for convection in eastern KS this afternoon. If storms develop, a few could reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Flooding could again occur where storms track over saturated grounds. The boundary should be progressive and is expected to be southeast of the forecast area by this evening. A surface ridge builds into the area from the north on Friday, which should make for a nice day. Conditions will be dry as dew points drop into the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs will warm into the low and mid 80s and northwest winds will be breezy at 10-20 mph. Increasing POPs return to northeast KS late Saturday and Sunday as the next in a series of mid-level troughs moves across the northern portion of the CONUS. Ahead of this feature, strong southerly flow returns, with moisture increasing once again through the weekend. The highest potential for this next round of wet weather currently appears to be from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Once again, heavy rainfall could occur with models generally showing another 0.5 to 1.5 inches possible. Drier weather is then expected into the middle of next week with temperatures creeping upward each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Seeing the clouds breaking up in eastern KS via satellite, so expecting VFR conditions to return to TOP/FOE in the first hour or so of the period. Frontal boundary has passed all terminals, so the chance for any isolated showers or rumbles of thunder to impact terminals is very low the rest of today. Hi-res guidance has been backing off on any post-frontal activity as well. With clearing skies and light winds overnight, will monitor potential for patchy fog especially in the river valley, but there may be enough dry air advecting into the area to preclude this, so confidence in that is low at this time. Otherwise, expect NW winds under 10 kt through the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Picha