Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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992 FXUS63 KTOP 050807 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry today into Saturday before storms chances increase Saturday afternoon/evening. Some storms could be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts. - Additional showers and storms impact the area Sunday into Monday. The severe risk is low, but rounds of storms over saturated soils could lead to an increased risk for flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 West-northwest flow resides across the Central Plains this morning as a closed upper low spins over the Upper Midwest. Drier air continues to build in behind yesterday`s front with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Surface high pressure will be in control of the region today, leading to a pleasant summer day with highs in the 80s. A passing perturbation increases mid-level ascent and saturation which could generate isolated showers this afternoon, although abundant dry air below 700mb should limit precipitation from reaching the ground. Southerly low-level flow returns on Saturday ahead of several waves of energy that are progged to move through the region this weekend with the first shortwave coming Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could impact north central Kansas Saturday afternoon before convection that initializes across western/central Kansas and southern Nebraska advances southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours. Instability isn`t progged to be very robust (MUCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg), but 30 kts of effective shear and inverted-V soundings support severe wind gusts, especially if convection organizes into a linear mode. Best chances for severe weather are across north central and central Kansas before any convective complex is expected to weaken as it continues southeast during the late evening. Storms look to be progressive enough to keep the flooding threat low with this round. A couple more waves on the heals of the first bring additional storm chances (50-70%) Sunday into Monday morning. Shear and instability will support some strong to marginally severe storms during this timeframe. Increasing moisture content and the potential for a few rounds of storms could lead to flooding, especially given saturated soils and elevated rivers, creeks, and streams from recent rainfall. Details in regards to amounts and placement of heaviest rainfall remain uncertain, but medium-range guidance shows the potential for 0.5-1.5" of rain across the area. NBM has a 60-75% probability of 0.5" of rain and a 30-50% chance of 1" of rain through Monday morning for the forecast area. Conditions dry out Monday afternoon into the middle of the week. Temperatures remain slightly below average for this time of year with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions prevail. Northwest winds increase this afternoon with gusts around 20kts before winds weaken again by 00z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Flanagan