663
FNUS75 KTFX 192358
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Dalton Fire...Southwest Monana Incident Management Team
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
558 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on July 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm and dry conditions prevail beneath a persistent upper
level ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior western
United States. Except for some lingering late day cumulus this
evening and again Saturday afternoon, skies will be mainly clear
with a very small (less than 15%) chance if an isolated shower
or thunderstorm developing late Saturday in any stronger cumulus
buildup. General winds over ridgetops remain fairly light and
vary from the north to northeast tonight, veering to more easterly
through the day on Saturday, while light terrain-driven winds
prevail in less exposed areas.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....50-50.
Max humidity........60-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds 5-10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast late in the evening, then becoming
                    down-slope/down-drainage up to 5 mph overnight.
 Ridgetop...........Northwest 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 5 to 10 mph late in the evening.


TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........10     8      9      6      7      7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............91     86     73     65     60     56
RH..............18     22     36     50     58     64
20 ft wind......NW 5   N 5    E 0    E 5    SE 0   SE 0
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     10     5      5
Ridgetop wind...NW 15  N 10   NE 10  E 10   SE 10  E 5
Haines index....4      4      M      M      M      M

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................Zero.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....90-95.
Min humidity........14-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth early in the morning.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........3      4      3      5      14     31
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............54     62     77     86     89     91
RH..............68     57     37     23     20     19
20 ft wind......SE 0   E 0    NE 0   NE 5   E 5    NE 5
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      10     10     15
Ridgetop wind...E 5    E 5    E 5    N 0    NE 5   NE 10
Haines index....M      4      4      4      4      4

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....52-57.
Max humidity........61-66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northeast winds around 5 mph.
 Ridgetop...........Northeast around 10 mph.


TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     14     13     7      7      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............90     84     73     67     61     56
RH..............19     24     36     45     52     58
20 ft wind......NE 5   E 5    NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 5
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     10
Ridgetop wind...NE 10  NE 25  E 30   E 25   SE 20  SE 10
Haines index....4      4      M      M      M      M

$$
Forecaster...Hoenisch
Requested by...Tavis Campbell
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418354.18/TFX
.DELDT 07/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mthdc@firenet.gov,campbelltavis@gmail.com,tfx.ops@noaa.gov