771
FXUS65 KTFX 080117
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
717 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A significant warming trend and dry conditions will persist
through the week as temperatures will rise well above averages.
Wednesday and Thursday will be the hottest days with most lower
elevation locations reaching into the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...

Very minor changes were made with the updated run of the NBM.
Otherwise the going forecast is on track. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
08/00Z TAF Period

Mountain cumulus will decrease through the early evening hours with
the loss of diurnal heating, with VFR conditions expected across all
terminals through the 0800/0900 TAF period. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 455 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024/

The warming trend continues as the upper level ridge slowly builds
in. High temperatures today stay close to or slight above
climatological averages. Dry conditions are expected for the
afternoon. However, cumulus clouds building in over the higher
terrain may spark an isolated shower(<20%). -Wilson

As the ridge axis currently over the west coast shifts eastwards
through the weekend and next week, warmer air building in aloft
will help push temperatures well above averages. By Monday and
Tuesday, temperatures will warm 5-15 degrees above averages. The
hottest days look to be Wednesday/Thursday as the upper level
ridge axis translates overhead, with daytime maximum temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 90s for many lower elevation areas and
near daily records for some locations, particularly on Thursday.
Some locations may have temperatures reaching or exceeding 100F
Wednesday/Thursday (particularly in the Helena area).
Temperatures may moderate slightly as the upper ridge flattens
some Friday into next weekend but are expected to remain well
above average with daytime temperatures in the 90s most likely to
persist through the weekend across SW MT valleys. Dry condtions
are expected throughout the forecast period. However, some upper
air disturbances rounding out the ridge may try to produce some
isolated light showers/drier thunderstorms, particularly during
the weekend. -Wilson/Hoenisch

Probability of daytime maximum temperatures reaching 100F or
higher:

            Wed  Thu  Fri
Bozeman     15%  25%  30%
Cut Bank    10%   1%   1%
Dillon       0%   0%   0%
Great Falls 20%  20%   5%
Havre       15%  30%   2%
Helena      65%  50%  30%
Lewistown    0%   1%   1%

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  56  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  53  89  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  58  93  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  51  88  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  39  79  42  83 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  49  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  54  92  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  51  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls