421
FXXX10 KWNP 080031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jul 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 08-Jul 10 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 08-Jul 10 2024

             Jul 08       Jul 09       Jul 10
00-03UT       2.00         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       3.00         3.00         1.33
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         1.33
09-12UT       2.67         2.33         1.33
12-15UT       2.67         1.00         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         1.67         1.33
18-21UT       1.67         2.00         1.67
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2024

              Jul 08  Jul 09  Jul 10
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 07 2024 2231 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2024

              Jul 08        Jul 09        Jul 10
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 08-10 Jul.