143
FXUS62 KTBW 131208
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
808 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

In the upper levels, broad high pressure centered north of Bermuda is
ridging across the Florida Peninsula this morning, with this
ridging aloft forecast to hold through the next week. At the
surface, the sub-tropical ridge axis is extending across central
and southwest Florida this morning, favoring weak and rather
variable flow. Showers and a few storms are forecast to develop
over the coastal waters early this morning, then will begin to
develop over land areas during the late morning and afternoon
hours.

Sunday through the rest of next week, surface flow will remain
light, but will tend towards more easterly and southeasterly
flow. This will result in the storm coverage occurring later in
the day with storms developing over land in the afternoon and
shifting towards the west coast through the late afternoon and
early evening hours. As stacked ridging shifts more overhead and
convection starts later in the day, max temperatures are also
forecast to creep back up Sunday through Tuesday. However, MOS
guidance shows these temperatures will moderate again during the
second half of the week as the surface ridge retreats back to the
east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Once again looking at afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity
across the area. Best chance of TSRA on station will be at TPA,
LAL, and PIE were a TEMPO group was added. VFR conditions and
winds generally below 10 knots will prevail outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge weakly into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through the weekend and early next week, with light winds
turning onshore each afternoon with the sea breeze. Showers and
storms will be possible each day, mainly in the afternoon and
early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be
possible each day this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  79  92  79 /  80  40  70  30
FMY  92  76  94  78 /  70  40  70  20
GIF  94  77  95  77 /  80  40  70  10
SRQ  91  77  93  78 /  60  40  60  40
BKV  94  75  93  75 /  80  40  70  30
SPG  91  81  93  82 /  70  40  70  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn