![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
161 FXUS62 KTBW 060705 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 305 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the period...with the center of the U/L ridge over the forecast area through the weekend. This will create large scale subsidence over the area with temperatures several degrees above normal. Given dew points in the mid to upper 70s, this will create heat indices of 108-111 across portions of west central Florida today and Sunday. Weak easterly boundary layer flow will develop today. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties through the day...which will be the focus for convection this afternoon. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the coastal counties with PCPW values of 2.1 to 2.3 inches...however, some relatively drier air aloft as seen on W/V over eastern Florida will work its way over the interior today. This will decrease areal coverage of storms in that area, with highest pops along the west coast along the west coast sea breeze boundary. Combination of deep tropical moisture and weak flow/slow moving storms will create favorable conditions for locally heavy rain and flooding of streets/low lying areas...with a similar set-up on Sunday. Boundary layer flow will shift to the south and southwest early next week. Best available deep layer moisture will be over the nature coast where highest pops will exist. By midweek, boundary layer flow will shift to the east and deep layer moisture will become relatively uniform across the forecast area. Numerous afternoon showers and scattered thunderstorms expected across the region each day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the early morning hours. Daytime heating will generate a CU by mid/late morning will local MVFR CIGs developing 020-030. Bases will lift by afternoon, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs...which may impact terminals across the region for a few hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity with the greatest coverage during the evening and overnight hours. Storms may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 93 79 / 60 40 60 40 FMY 93 79 94 79 / 60 30 60 30 GIF 96 77 96 77 / 40 30 60 20 SRQ 93 79 92 79 / 60 40 60 40 BKV 95 76 95 76 / 60 40 60 30 SPG 93 83 93 82 / 60 40 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt