984
FXUS62 KTBW 062351
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Despite the high surface dew points, afternoon thunderstorm
coverage remained remarkably limited, confined mostly to right
along the sea breeze boundary pinned closed to the west coast,
west of Interstate 75. Early evening water vapor satellite imagery
is showing an upper level low spinning over the Atlantic between
the Bahamas and Bermuda, wrapping some dry air aloft into the
Florida Peninsula. This dry air aloft is the most likely culprit
for the unusually low rain coverage today over most of the
forecast area.

Rain chances were scaled back for the overnight period to reflect
the recent rain and satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast
looks on track, and no other changes are planned for the evening
update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally VFR conditions will hold through the rest of the
evening, though a few isolated showers are lingering along the
west coast, and a brief flight category disruption cannot be
completely ruled out. A few showers will be possible shifting
onshore from the Gulf in the morning, but the bigger threat of
convection will not start until after around 17-19z, with
thunderstorms developing along the west coast then shifting inland
through early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure gradient remains over the E Gulf waters with generally
light winds and slight seas continuing into early-mid next week.
Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds,
higher seas, and lightning for mariners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid summertime conditions continue with light winds and
afternoon seabreezes to keep fire weather concerns minimalized.
Light flow will again keep dispersion index values low. Expect
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic winds
and dangerous lightning possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  80  91 /  20  70  40  70
FMY  78  93  78  92 /  20  60  30  60
GIF  78  96  77  94 /  10  60  20  70
SRQ  78  93  78  91 /  20  60  40  70
BKV  75  95  76  93 /  20  60  30  70
SPG  83  93  83  91 /  20  60  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
PREVIOUS MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis