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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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656 FXUS62 KTBW 150013 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 813 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Made a few adjustments to PoPs coverage to remain consistent with latest obs and radar trends, otherwise forecast remains on track. Fairly widespread shield of stratiform precip with embedded convective elements remains over parts of the Nature Coast through C FL and into parts of SWFL early this evening, with expectations that it`ll follow typical diurnal trends and gradually over the next few hours into the overnight period. Partly cloudy and humid conditions with light winds expected to follow for the remainder of the overnight period with lows in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Not much changing in the overall forecast from today through most of next week. Ridging will be situated overhead giving us neutral flow and very light winds across the area. This will result in slow moving storms each day that could result in localize flooding as showers tend to just sit over one area. As we get into our Friday and next weekend ridging start to shift north giving us a more south to southeast flow. This will keep focus on our coastal areas for afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Lingering activity currently affecting mainly terminals outside of FMY/RSW likely to diminish over the next couple hours with VFR conditions returning for remainder of tonight and lasting through Monday morning before shower and storm chances return during the afternoon and early evening before diminishing late evening into overnight. Light winds tonight increase out of the SE during the morning and shift onshore during the afternoon, with perhaps a delayed or lesser shift for FMY/RSW. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Ridging overhead will keep winds out of the southeast and generally below 10 knots through Thursday. We can expect a few spotty showers overnight and in the early morning hours each day. Also looking at some storms pushing off the coast each evening as seabreeze start to weaken. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 92 79 93 / 70 60 40 70 FMY 76 94 77 94 / 50 60 30 70 GIF 76 95 77 96 / 60 60 10 60 SRQ 76 92 78 94 / 50 50 40 60 BKV 75 93 74 95 / 60 70 30 60 SPG 80 92 82 94 / 60 50 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close