567
FXUS62 KTBW 161836
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
236 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the forecast period
with the sub-tropical ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula through the rest of the week, setting up light flow
generally out of the southeast. Under this pattern, scattered
showers and a few storms will be possible over the coastal waters
during the early morning hours, then storms will start to develop
along the west coast sea breeze during the early afternoon,
generally along and west of Interstate 75. Thunderstorms will
continue to build inland through the rest of the afternoon, but
the west coast sea breeze will remained pinned fairly close to the
coast. Convection then gradually dissipates after sunset and the
pattern repeats. The biggest variation in this pattern looks to
happen Wednesday, when slightly drier air aloft pushes into
central and southwest Florida, keeping rain coverage limited to
the isolated to scattered range over much of the area, mainly
south of Interstate 4.

Apart from the rain chances, temperatures will continue to run a
couple of degrees above normal through the rest of the week and the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Normal summertime conditions continue to prevail across the
region. Expect sea breeze thunderstorms to continue into the evening
hours across TAF sites. Winds will remain light throughout the
evening with direction shifting to offshore around 21/22Z. Showers
and storms will begin to develop towards FMY and southern TAFs
around 22/23Z. Storms should diminish between 01/02Z. Similar
conditions expected tomorrow for northern TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week. Light
winds generally out of the southeast will turn onshore each
afternoon with the sea breeze, becoming more southerly later in
the week. Scattered showers and storms will be possible each day,
with a few showers or storms developing over the waters during
the early morning hours, then another round of storms possible in
the late afternoon and early evening as storms over land shift
into the coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

No humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected each of the next couple of afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  80  92 /  40  50  20  60
FMY  76  95  78  93 /  40  30  10  70
GIF  76  97  78  96 /  30  30  10  60
SRQ  77  93  78  93 /  40  40  20  60
BKV  75  94  74  95 /  40  60  10  60
SPG  80  93  82  93 /  40  50  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley/Kreitzer