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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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462 FXUS62 KTBW 181932 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 332 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The Atlantic ridge axis remains in place across the central Florida peninsula with scattered to numerous convection expected to continue to develop through the remainder of the day along the sea breeze collision and additional boundary collisions that develop. While a ribbon of drier air continues to linger across central FL, this continues to gradually scour out as deeper moisture continues to advect in from the south. This narrow region of drier air may limit precipitation coverage somewhat particularly north of Tampa Bay where the sea breeze collision will occur further inland compared to southern interior areas where the collision will occur near the I-75 corridor. Recent CAMs show this general trend with activity increasing in coverage southeast of Tampa Bay across southern interior areas and southwest FL and generally less across portions of the Nature Coast. The main concern with the activity the remainder of the day will be minor flooding mainly in poor drainage or urban areas given slow and erratic storm motions, though can`t completely rule out some isolated stronger downburst winds either. Otherwise, any activity from today tapers off by mid to late evening with the loss of diurnal heating with mainly dry conditions overnight across land areas but the land breeze may support activity over the adjacent Gulf waters. Friday should feature a similar pattern with another round of scattered to numerous convection as the low level flow generally remains southeasterly as the Atlantic ridge axis continues in place across central FL. This will once again favor a sea breeze collision along the west coast of the FL peninsula particularly for areas south of I-4, though the sea breeze will spread further inland in areas to the north with locally torrential rainfall and minor flooding being the primary concern. By the weekend, it appears that the ridging aloft builds in from the east and this will shift the surface ridge axis northward with the southeasterly low level flow continuing to become further established. This would of course continue to favor higher rain chances across the western half of peninsula with greatest precipitation coverage during the late afternoon and evening hours, though models also show a plume of dust associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) may also move through by the weekend. Should this materialize, there could at least be several pockets of drier air move through at times to at least lower rain chances occasionally, but there should be enough deeper moisture in place to maintain chance/likely PoPs in the forecast for now. By early to mid week, models then show deeper moisture increasing across the area as a mid level inverted trough moves across the Bahamas and then eventually the Florida peninsula. While it appears that the Saharan dust may still be lingering, PoPs are generally on an increasing trend early to mid week as forcing for ascent could increase depending on the track of this feature. In addition, this feature may also bring enough cloud cover with the higher rain chances to potentially bring a slight decrease in temperatures and the overall heat risk into next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the day but occasional restrictions may occur at times as scattered showers and storms increase in coverage through this evening. Any precipitation activity across the area will then taper off overnight with winds becoming light/VRB. Winds then shift to mainly SE by Friday morning until switching onshore with the sea breeze by Friday afternoon with additional scattered storms possible again. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Atlantic high pressure will keep mostly southerly winds in place through the remainder of the week, though winds will shift onshore during the day as the sea breeze spreads inland. Southeasterly flow then develops area-wide by the weekend and into early next week as the surface ridge axis shifts northward with wind speeds generally remaining 10 kts or less. Other than occasional showers and thunderstorms producing locally hazardous seas at times, no marine headlines are expected at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 302 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Southeasterly flow will generally be in place through the remainder of the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as the sea breeze spreads inland, though winds will become onshore at the coast with the sea breeze. Overall, the fire danger remains low as relative humidity values generally remain above 50 percent and wind speeds remain below critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 93 79 93 / 30 70 40 70 FMY 77 93 78 94 / 40 70 30 70 GIF 77 95 77 95 / 40 70 20 70 SRQ 78 93 78 93 / 40 70 40 70 BKV 75 95 75 94 / 30 70 40 70 SPG 82 93 82 93 / 40 70 50 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard