782
FXUS62 KTBW 061237
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
837 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Hot and humid summertime pattern continues for the region today
with dangerously high Heat Index values along with scattered to
numerous afternoon sea breeze showers and thunderstorms. Latest
grids and forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
VFR conditions continue through the morning hours with diurnal CU
field developing and LCL MVFR CIGs around 025-030. Afternoon
SHRA/TSRA with LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR VSBYs...which may impact
terminals across the region for a few hours. VFR conditions return
area wide aft 00Z.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through
the period...with the center of the U/L ridge over the forecast
area through the weekend. This will create large scale subsidence
over the area with temperatures several degrees above normal.
Given dew points in the mid to upper 70s, this will create heat
indices of 108-111 across portions of west central Florida today
and Sunday.

Weak easterly boundary layer flow will develop today. This will
hold the west coast sea breeze boundary over the coastal counties
through the day...which will be the focus for convection this
afternoon. Deep tropical moisture will persist over the coastal
counties with PCPW values of 2.1 to 2.3 inches...however, some
relatively drier air aloft as seen on W/V over eastern Florida
will work its way over the interior today. This will decrease
areal coverage of storms in that area, with highest pops along the
west coast along the west coast sea breeze boundary. Combination
of deep tropical moisture and weak flow/slow moving storms will
create favorable conditions for locally heavy rain and flooding of
streets/low lying areas...with a similar set-up on Sunday.

Boundary layer flow will shift to the south and southwest early
next week. Best available deep layer moisture will be over the
nature coast where highest pops will exist. By midweek, boundary
layer flow will shift to the east and deep layer moisture will
become relatively uniform across the forecast area. Numerous
afternoon showers and scattered thunderstorms expected across the
region each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with
winds below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity with the greatest
coverage during the evening and overnight hours. Storms may cause
locally gusty winds and rough seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will
keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  79  93  79 /  60  40  60  40
FMY  93  79  94  79 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  96  77  96  77 /  40  30  60  20
SRQ  93  79  92  79 /  60  40  60  40
BKV  95  76  95  76 /  60  40  60  30
SPG  93  83  93  82 /  60  40  60  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RDavis
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close