127
FXUS62 KTBW 072353
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
753 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a swath of
dry air aloft pushing into central and southern portions of the
Florida Peninsula from the Atlantic. Similar to yesterday, this
kept much of the area rain free today, with the majority of
convection occurring along and west of Interstate 75. Isolated
showers and a few storms are continuing to linger along sea breeze
and outflow boundaries, with mainly rain free conditions expected
to return in the next couple of hours.

Rain chances were trimmed back for the next few hours to keep up
with radar trends. No other changes are planned for the evening
update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Isolated showers and storms are continuing to linger around area
TAF sites, but are expected to dissipate by around 01-02z. Mainly
VFR conditions will then hold through Monday morning. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will shift onshore and continue to
develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours,
impacting area terminals at times through the early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak high pressure is expected to remain over the E Gulf waters
with generally light winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week
with no headlines expected. Main concern will be thunderstorms
producing locally gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for
mariners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns expected with the warm and humid summertime
conditions continuing with light winds and afternoon seabreezes.
The light flow will again keep dispersion index values fairly low.
Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms with gusty erratic
winds and dangerous lightning possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  92  80  90 /  30  70  30  70
FMY  79  93  79  92 /  20  50  10  50
GIF  78  95  77  91 /  20  70  20  70
SRQ  79  92  80  91 /  20  60  30  50
BKV  76  94  76  90 /  30  70  40  70
SPG  83  92  83  91 /  30  70  40  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Fleming
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...RDavis